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Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:06 PM

Michigan number looking terrible again. over 200 new deaths.

Meanwhile they are trying to recall that woman from Michigan for closing factories.

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Reply Michigan number looking terrible again. over 200 new deaths. (Original post)
gibraltar72 Apr 2020 OP
Igel Apr 2020 #1
gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #2

Response to gibraltar72 (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 02:59 PM

1. New deaths reported.

It's not a meaningless distinction. A lot of the spikes, dips, false peaks we see aren't due to reality but to how reality's reported.

Wait to see how curve smoothing works--some of the deaths may have occurred yesterday.

Projections for NY are going to be screwed as NY changes its basis for attributing deaths--either they find a way of factoring out that increase for the projection then add them back in, producing a step in an otherwise smooth curve; they recalculate from the beginning given modified data from day 1; or it'll screw with the math and make the predictions necessarily weird and inherently unusable. Which projection? Any.

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Response to Igel (Reply #1)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 03:01 PM

2. Yes new 205 actually.

not enough tests but still about 1 in 3 positive.

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