FEMA Pandemic Scenario
https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1563998211160-f5da0c60ffeb239845d2e577c953f136/2019NTHIRA_20190725_508c.pdf
created by FEMA 07/25/2019
2019 National Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Overview and Methodology
Potential Pandemic Scenario (pages 19-20)
In early October, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports a new (novel) strain of influenza virus in the National Capital Region. Less than two weeks after the first confirmed case is identified at a local hospital, the illness causes hundreds of fatalities and thousands of people seeking medical attention. As the virus spreads, approximately 30 percent of the population across the United States and other countries becomes severely ill.
Conventional flu vaccines are ineffective against the current strain, and the CDC estimates that a new vaccine could be months away from mass production. Because of the pandemic, social distancing is in widespread effect. Utilities, police, fire, government, and other essential services are disrupted due to social distancing and employee absenteeism. Businesses close, resulting in a large-scale loss of services across the region (e.g. banking, food stores, gas stations).
There is a shortage of medical supplies, equipment, beds, and healthcare workers as hospitals are quickly overwhelmed, with up to millions of individuals seeking outpatient medical care and millions more requiring hospitalization. Civil disorder contributes to the high rate of absenteeism and the overcrowding of hospitals and medical centers.
"No one could have seen this coming"