Early trading, oil down to $15..

[safeinOhio]

Pump price might drop a couple of cents.

[Demovictory9]

1. yikes that's cheap. with no one driving, it's hard for Trump to keep the price up

[sarcasmo]

2. Hyper inflation coming soon.

[Laelth]

4. What makes you say that?

That seems unlikely to me.



-Laelth

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

6. What would you see as triggering hyper inflation?

[enid602]

16. inflation

The Gov't has been spending a lot on recovery since 2018. It's up to about $10 Trillion now. We did not have any of that money to spend. We were printing money. Lots of heperinflation. Weimar style.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

19. As much money as that is, I kind of don't think it's even inflationary,

let alone hyperinflationary. This isn't the Weimar Republic.

The drop in gas prices is hardly inflationary.

[enid602]

22. Weimar

We're in uncharted territory. The Gov't's never printed so much money before. They spent $1Trillion in '18 on buying back TBills from foreign governments because they could not sell them. They did another $1Trillion in '19 and another $1Trillion in '20. We can't resell these TBills. If printing money to pay off our foreign debt is not inflationary, we should have done it years ago.

The US Dollar is somewhat unusual in that historically it was used as the unit of exchange for global trade. It has become less so. For every dollar here in the States, there are something like 10 in foreign countries. They were kept in reserve by foreign banks, Governments and multinationals. They're likely to come home soon. Weimar.

[FBaggins]

24. Not sure where your claims are coming from

If the U.S. was having trouble selling treasuries... the dollar would be crumbling and treasury rates would be climbing.

Instead... just the opposite is occurring.

The danger right now is deflation, not inflation.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. However, almost no physical currenct is being printed up.

The vast majority of this money will arrive digitally, and most of the physical checks that arrive will be deposited. Some cash money will, of course, but taken out.

A quick Google search tells me that there's about $1.5 trillion in actual physical cash in U.S. currency is in circulation. And some 92% of all our money is digital. Which, if I did the math right, means that our total amount of dollars floating around out there is over $8 trillion out there in currency, both electronic and physical.

Given that, it makes me wonder if virtually all of the cash being digital doesn't mitigate powerfully against inflation at all.

Hyperinflation seems to depend on people actually handling cold, hard cash, along with the government printing up obscene amounts of it. And, if we're going to go into a serious depression with all of this, the likelihood that it will trigger much inflation. Especially as one cause of inflation is too many consumer chasing after too few goods. We have already seen the case of toilet paper hoarding, and apparently some people have tried to profiteer by selling toilet paper at a much higher price. But that is only one good, not anything overall.

[Celerity]

8. lol, no it is not

[kurtcagle]

9. In absolute terms, no. In relative terms, probably.

We're in a deflationary spiral now. Wages are collapsing, price of most non-essential goods are collapsing, price of food is likely to get more expensive. Expect both rent and mortgages to start dropping as demand for housing dries up. Healthcare is going to get prohibitive, before it collapses altogether. Educational costs are going to collapse. Automobiles are going to collapse.

Problem is that in relative terms, you're probably right - wages will probably collapse faster than goods. However, I see deflation being the bigger problem first.

[safeinOhio]

11. It could as tRump turns up the printing press,

the dollar could loose value. Or hyper deflation which could be worse.

I can't predict the economy. I can only sense trouble ahead.

[Demsrule86]

18. I doubt it...more likely a deflation...which goes hand in hand with depression.

[lapfog_1]

3. We could all start a bet on when a barrel

of oil is the same as a retail gallon of gasoline.

[katusha]

5. not much traction for those production cuts n/t

[Celerity]

7. that's the smaller, less important WTI, Brent Crude, the main one is holding pretty steady near 28

https://oilprice.com/

[Ilsa]

13. Even at $28, wouldn't it be likely

to be unprofitable to produce, thereby requiring layoffs?

I'm trying to imagine his oil patch trumpers hanging with him through this.

[Celerity]

15. If they are racist (odds are high they are) they will hang with Rump

Unfortunately they all will not ACTUALLY hang, lol.

The big oil boys in Houston LOVE to see the black population there being disproportionately killed off. The entire racial disparate impact of this should never be discount in terms of the white nationalists (aka typical MAGATs) actually liking the pandemic as long as they themselves don't get too lit up. Bonus is when they get the family fortune a decade early when old Ma and/or Pa Slackjaw get snuffed out in a COVID-19 infested nursing home. Here comes that 2021 Porsche 911 and wifey's (or his side candy's) new tit 'n nose job!

I also think Rump will keep leaning on Russia and OPEC to further choke off production.

The US holds the whip-hand, as it doesnt need domestic oil production to balance its books, but Russia and the OPEC nations do.

[Massacure]

17. The operational cost for a barrel of crude in the United States is about $14.80

https://www.statista.com/statistics/597669/cost-breakdown-of-producing-one-barrel-of-oil-in-the-worlds-leading-oil-producing-countries/

The operational cost for a barrel of crude is about $14.80 in the U.S. The problem is that companies also need charge average of $21.50 per barrel to recover their capital expenditures. So while companies aren't losing money each barrel produced, the banks and/or the shareholders are going to get skunked depending on how the the drilling costs were financed. .

[KY_EnviroGuy]

10. My kind of luck - dirt cheap gas and no place to go.

KY.............. .........

[BGBD]

12. How long can US fields stay open?

At some point you have to look at it and say "Why am I draining my reserves at this price?" It'll be better to slow or stop production until prices come back to where you can justify it.

[safeinOhio]

14. Demand is down 40%.

Oil producers are in a bunch of trouble, including Putin and SA Prince.

[roamer65]

20. Lowest price I saw in MI today was $1.33

We may be heading for $1.

[MerryBlooms]

21. Meh, I'm still paying $2.39 for regular. Fucking hwy robbery here in southern OR.

[RB TexLa]

23. Oil and gasoline are two different markets

Yes there is a direct link between the two but there are forces that can put pressure on one but not the other.