Is US rate of death going up or is the number so high now even a small multiplier looks awful?

[uponit7771]

Is our rate of death going up or is the number so high now even a small multiplier looks awful?

Any good news on national numbers going down?

Meaning no one is going to die tomorrow good news?

askin for a friend that might be depressed

Thx in advance

[ProfessorGAC]

1. As Mentioned Elsewhere

The counting method was altered so the numbers are less predictive and less correlated to prior values.
So, I don't know if it's good or bad.
Guessing still on a slight upward trend, with a smaller multiplier each day. If they've changed the counting method I don't know how much straight numerics mean.

[uponit7771]

2. Ah, Hayes had something related to counting extra deaths for this time of year. The lack of testing

... is hurting the country to an unknown measure

[ProfessorGAC]

3. One Thing I Read..

...might have been Ms.Toad (not sure) that NYC & others started counting people who died at home and places other than hospital.
There was some other change but I'm braincramping on exactly what it was.

[Ms. Toad]

4. The change took place on the 14th, and states are slowly catching up.

Here are the details: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

So more people qualify as a case, and as more forms of testing become available the new cases tied to the alternate tests will continue to increase.

Even with the identification of older deaths that are reported as new, it is more that the numbers are so large that even a small multiplier looks really big.

Here are the daily death multipliers for the last 6 days - they range from a 4% increase to 9% increase in total deaths. So even though they were in the range of 38% daily growth - that was when there were a few hundred a day. 38% of a few hundred is no more than 100 - a lot smaller than 5% of the death total yesterday - at more than 2000.

1.087778709
1.067009833
1.072738828
1.050599165
1.039498642
1.048304771

[ProfessorGAC]

6. Thanks

I was pretty darned sure it was your post I had read.
That was only 8 days ago. We're likely a week from seeing a stable enough dataset. Fifteen days, given other states catching up, will probably catch the big number changes.
Unless of course these aggressive early reopenings go sideways.

[ananda]

5. The death rate is going up. However...

... I don't think either the number of deaths or
the number of cases is being accurately counted
or reported. Both are considerably higher.

I think we all know why.

[Celerity]

7. yes, you can easily double both IMHO, maybe triple or quadruple the case number (exposed)

[Igel]

8. Since they've taken to counting the ones who die at home,

if the symptoms seem to fit COVID, it rather assumes every day there are scores if not hundreds of additional unfound dead scattered around most major cities.

That seems unlikely. By now there'd be 5 thousand dead just rotting in their apartments and in their cars in NYC.