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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIHME Projection Jumps Back Up to 65,976 Deaths by August 4
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaDream Girl
(5,111 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)This stuff really makes one worry about relatives. Once people get this virus, it is either they middle along, or die fast. This stuff is NOT the flu and it doesn't mess around once it gets into a vulnerable body. Even people that survive may have lifelong organ damage, damage that will most likely kill most of them early.
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)and the crazy southern governors who are opening bars and massage parlors. By the end of May this will be a huge mess.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)For example June 19th for Georgia-too bad their Governor hasn't gotten the message since he's going to open it up 7 WEEKS earlier
Squinch
(51,075 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)"Current social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented"
That will end in many states soon!
uponit7771
(90,370 posts)... America the current reality.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)ProfessorGAC
(65,334 posts)See what I did there?
But, I had to chime in because I agree wholeheartedly.
There's something wrong with some their base assumptions, and actuarial modeling always requiresnsome assumptions about risk variables & censor values. Maybe they're being too conservative in how they're censoring the data.
But even with the uptick in their projection that's 22,000 deaths in 104 days. Since deaths went from a thousand to 40,000 in 25 days, (I think that # of days is right) 212/day seems optimistic.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Their model is crap
Squinch
(51,075 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)congregate even more and please ask t-rump, pence, the administration, the republican party and don't forget devos to join every fucking day.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)We'll be at 55,000 by this time next week.
NoMoreRepugs
(9,500 posts)more going forward than they have already.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)Those rat-fuckers will do everything in their power to make Trump look good. This is where we need the press to investigate the truth. Plus with several their political future is directed tied to their failure to follow proper recommended procedures
Squinch
(51,075 posts)rzemanfl
(29,581 posts)The projection is bullshit.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Is does something pass the common sense test.
We are losing like 2500 a day now. New infections are not dropping quickly. How in the world am I to believe the number of deaths is about to plummet to 200 hundred a day?
Even if the deaths are cut in half we will blow thru 65k in just over 2 weeks.
I hope Im wrong. If I was a believer I would pray Im wrong. But I cant see it.
Indykatie
(3,697 posts)How can they show a projection of only 65,976 on August 4? What am I missing?
Crunchy Frog
(26,701 posts)by June 1st, and then continue at that rate through August. Looks like magical thinking to me.