COVID-19 estimation updates

[LiberalFighter]

COVID-19 estimation updates
More data, improved models, better estimates

Our last release on April 17 involved a number of model updates and innovations, namely substantially improving our death model and including initial predictions on when US states could safely consider easing current social distancing policies while shifting to robust containment strategies (widely available testing, contact tracing and case-based isolation, restrictions on mass gatherings).

With no substantive model changes since April 17, today’s release provides an update with new data for Europe and the US. We also aim to release initial estimates for a number of Latin American countries soon, as well as those for Puerto Rico and by province in Canada. The next update will provide a more in-depth discussion around key findings for Europe and the US.

Key findings from today’s release (April 21, 2020)
A focus on when US states could consider easing social distancing if containment measures are in place

Today’s release involves the second iteration of projecting when states may be able to consider easing currently implemented social distancing policies – if and only if – strong containment measures already have been instituted. Based on the latest available data and updated predictions of COVID-19 prevalence, the table below outlines potential timing of these considerations.

Model Projected Dates to Ease Distancing Policies *

May
(May 1) Montana
(May 6) Alaska, Hawaii
(May 7) West Virginia
(May 8) Vermont
(May 10) North Carolina
(May 13) Maine
(May 14) Ohio
(May 15) Idaho
(May 16) New Hampshire
(May 17) Alabama, California, Delaware
(May 18) Nevada
(May 19) Illinois, Michigan,
(May 20) Indiana, Tennessee
(May 21) Wisconsin
(May 22) Louisiana, New Mexico
(May 23) Wyoming
(May 25) Colorado, Oregon
(May 26) Washington
(May 27) New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
(May 30) Minnesota, Mississippi

June
(June 5) DC, Maryland, South Carolina, Virginia
(June 7) Connecticut, Massachusetts, Missouri, Rhode Island, Texas
(June 11) Florida, Kentucky
(June 14) Oklahoma
(June 19) Georgia, Kansas
(June 20) Arkansas
(June 21) Utah
(June 23) Arizona
(June 25) South Dakota
(June 26) Iowa
(June 30) Nebraska

July
(July 12) North Dakota

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Georgia June 19

[thucythucy]

2. I don't understand the logic to this.

So Texas eases (lifts?) restrictions on June 7th.

A Texas family decides to visit people in Florida, where presumably the potential for spreading the virus is such that the restrictions should still be in place. The family from Texas returns home, where they are free to mingle (since restrictions have been lifted).

What's to say the virus doesn't then travel with them back to Texas, and begins spreading all over again?

I guess it all hinges on "containment measures being in place." Are they currently in place or likely to be in place in Florida, Texas, South Dakota, Arkansas?

Color me confused.

[SheltieLover]

3. K&R

Vanderbilt released a projection for TN a day or 2 before scum gov Lee announced his reopening. Vanderbilt prohects TN to peak mid-June.

TY for posting. K&R

[lapfog_1]

4. The only way this works is if

a) every state closes the borders with other states and airports closed

and

b) The people in the states that didn't have or lifted the lock down early are not allowed to travel to states that follow the model until they are vaccinated

[uponit7771]

6. +1, the Ro of CV19 is 5.7 that means 2 people can flare an area of millions in a week

[dpibel]

5. So Kemp's only jumping the gun by...

a bit shy of two months.

This should be fine.

[ooky]

7. Kemp's actions are incomprehensible. He will cause much death and misery and only then

be forced to re-order Georgia's businesses to close. Georgians should ignore his orders and recall him. He is a bad leader and a wicked man.

[FreeState]

8. 60k deaths by August - this model has issues

I see they changed it to 65 now.

Somethings wrong with their model - we will hit 50k tomorrow and 65k in about 15 days.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”

“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.

[dpibel]

10. I think 65K by the end of the month

But let's not quibble.

[Squinch]

9. Why do people keep quoting this bullshit model? It is crap and it has never been even

close to predictive. Epidemiologists are on record saying it's crap.

Donnie Bodybags chose it for a reason: it dependably predicts extremely low numbers that have no relation to reality.

This model will get people killed.

[pstokely]

11. is there a more accurate model?

or are they all crap like weather forecast for a month from now?

[Squinch]

12. I don't know if there is a more accurate model. This one does not use

proven epidemiological methods, and epidemiologists are on record saying that its crap, so I presume there are better models.

But that matters little. And the comparison to weather maps is often used but not logical.

We KNOW this model bears no resemblance to reality. This has been obvious since it first began to be quoted. Yet it is being pushed by the government because it is the model that most under predicts deaths, and therefore best serves the purposes of Donnie Bodybags.

If your weather model told you that New England was going to remain above 70 degrees throughout the winter months, you would throw out that model.

But THIS crap model is being used to justify reopening, which will kill tens of thousands if not more.