Trump, Biden Deadlocked in 6 Key States, CNBC/Change Research Poll Finds

[TexasTowelie]

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a tight race in six states that will shape who wins the White House in November, according to a new CNBC/Change Research survey.

The Republican incumbent and apparent Democratic nominee are virtually tied in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the States of Play poll of swing states released Wednesday. Trump edges Biden by a 48% to 47% margin across those states, the poll found.

The poll, which surveyed 5,787 likely voters in the six states on April 17 and 18, has a margin of error is plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.

The split in voter preferences in those states goes beyond their ballot choices. On a range of issues facing the country, from handling the coronavirus pandemic to pulling the economy out of a recession and making health care more affordable, respondents in the six battlegrounds do not have a clear preference for who would do a better job between Trump and Republicans or Biden and Democrats.

Read more: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/politics/trump-biden-deadlocked-in-6-key-states-cnbc-change-research-poll-finds/2281855/

[Jarqui]

1. Bullshit nt

[dchill]

2. I completely agree with your assessment.

[Cetacea]

15. +1000

Exactly.

[still_one]

35. +++

[sinkingfeeling]

38. You nailed it.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Useless poll

Aggregate polls over several very different states is pointless.

This is statistical malpractice.

[Sugarcoated]

7. What do you mean?

I know this is just one poll but I thought we should take the state polls more seriously than the national ones

[Loki Liesmith]

22. It randomly samples from a collection of states

But does not break out the the responses by state. If I poll Texas and Delaware and report the average approval rating for Trump the responses from Texas may overwhelm those from Delaware.

Break out results by the states.

[Sugarcoated]

29. It sounds like a waste of time

What would be the purpose of doing that?

[Loki Liesmith]

33. Makes a close result more likely.

The demographic differences in these states (3 traditionally red, three traditionally blue) are likely to cancel out so you get something close to a tie.

This poll was designed to give this result.

[Demsrule86]

26. It is not a state poll...and they are a terrible outfit.

[Demsrule86]

25. Just another form of an attack .

[BComplex]

42. This is to set everyone up for a trump win after russia hacks the elections in these states.

They already hacked Florida, so that's a given. This just tell us that russia now has these other states hacked, or almost hacked.

[SidDithers]

27. Yup...

Those are 6 individual states, not a single bloc of 6 combined states.

Sid

[Karadeniz]

4. We just can't be this stupid!

[blm]

5. That's a horseshyt poll.

Biden was leading in most of those states just last week.

[GusFring]

6. Never underestimate the stupidity of 48% of the country.

[Sugarcoated]

10. It's one poll

Never underestimate the stupidity of people who get hot and bothered by one poll

[SlogginThroughIt]

8. Oh is there a horserace? Bullshit.

[riversedge]

9. Relying on facts and science to make decisions: 52% Biden to 48% Trump !!!

OH for crying out loud!! 48% believe trump uses facts or science. good gawd!

[mucifer]

11. I have felt in my bones this "liberate" crap would eventually start working for them

[Vogon_Glory]

43. This "Liberate" Crap will only work so long

Then some of these boneheads will find out that the COVID virus doesn’t care about gun-humpers’ rights to carry AR-15s and to wave Confederate battle flags.

I’ve given up trying to reason with these people. I fear many will only learn through hands-on experience.

[OAITW r.2.0]

12. Give it 3-4 weeks, then tell me if it is deadlocked. NT

[elleng]

13. And THIS:

Poll signals strengthening support for Biden over Trump in three Midwest battleground states.

*The poll, which ran from April 15-20 in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, showed 45% of registered voters said they would support Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 39% said they would support Trump.

It also found that Biden, vice president under Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama, has an advantage of 3 percentage points among registered voters in Wisconsin, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 8 points in Michigan.'>>>

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-battlegrounds-exclusive/exclusive-poll-signals-strengthening-support-for-biden-over-trump-in-three-midwest-battleground-states-idUSKCN2243KJ?

"IGNORE?" that Pennsylvania is not a Midwestern state, but it IS battleground.

[mzmolly]

16. Thank

you! I just about had a heart attack.

[elleng]

17. BREATHE! I usually don't follow polls,

and hope I can contain my curiosity henceforth.

[mzmolly]

24. I just can't believe there is a single swing state

poll that shows the orange idiot ahead of Biden.



Thanks elleng.

[Proud liberal 80]

14. One thing that I did in 2016

That I refuse to do this year.....is to follow every single poll that comes out day after day for the next 6 months.....my emotions were all over the place, from very high to very low hanging on to every poll that was released....I remember one hour I would feel great seeing a Florida poll with Hillary up big, and then a few hours later I would feel scared and sad seeing another Florida poll having Trump up....and it was poll after poll after poll after poll

[elleng]

19. Good, I never have followed them,

hope I can keep up with that, and of course it's so early!

[Jake Stern]

18. Folks, just because you don't like the numbers

doesn’t make the poll wrong.

I’ve already made peace with the fact that most Americans are politically fickle.

[Demsrule86]

23. It is a change research poll a survey which was wrong well forever.

[Loki Liesmith]

30. The numbers are a jumbled mess

This isn’t 6 polls of 6 different states. It’s a single poll treating 6 states as an undifferentiated blob. That’s a recipe for a tie. You’re almost sure to get one if you go that.

[Jarqui]

20. Here's the claim:

"The Republican incumbent and apparent Democratic nominee are virtually tied in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the States of Play poll of swing states released Wednesday. Trump edges Biden by a 48% to 47% margin across those states, the poll found."

Real Clear Poll of Polls:

Arizona Biden +4.4, Trump's net approval since 2016 has fallen by 19 points

Florida Biden +3.4, Trump's net approval since 2016 has fallen by 19 points

Michigan Biden +5.5, Trump's net approval since 2016 has fallen by 18 points

North Carolina Trump +1.3, Trump's net approval since 2016 has fallen by 13 points

Pennsylvania Biden +4.5, Trump's net approval since 2016 has fallen by 11 points

Wisconsin Biden +2.7, Trump's net approval since 2016 has fallen by 17 points

In all those polls for all those states deriving those poll of polls averages, Trump only led in one single poll in NC.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html

Here's how his approval has sagged
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[mzmolly]

34. That's more like it!

[ooky]

40. WTF is wrong with NC voters?

[Demsrule86]

21. Yeah I call Bullshit...change research...what a joke.

It is a survey...and Biden was losing the entire primary...sure. Why don't some who are still holding a grudge just stop.

[oasis]

28. Trumpbot deplorable dipshits continue to wander in their deep delusion.

[Azathoth]

31. This country is beyond redemption

The fact Trump is even in the race outside of Alabama and Oklahoma is just... unreal.

[Progressive Jones]

32. How can there be that many Trump supporting morons??? nt

[sarcasmo]

36. Fox News Poll showed Biden up 8 in Pennsylvania.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-in-battleground-pennsylvania

[Lock him up.]

45. Also 538 has Biden up in Michigan, Wisconsin & Florida

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/


Looks like the ads are making people think (not enough yet but still early).

[Indykatie]

37. Change Research is Not a Solid Polling Outfit - C Rated With 5.5 Error Margin Per 538 Site n/t

[dsc]

39. An aggregate poll like this is only marginally better than a national poll

The fact is those states are different and likely won't be the same at election time. Now Hillary lost all 6 of them to be fair but she lost some by more than others. MI, WI were under 1 percent PA was barely over 1 percent NC was about 4, AZ was 4, FL just under 3. I would imagine that the numbers will be similarly apart this time though I do think NC and AZ are doing better this time for us but I also think that PA and MI are

[uponit7771]

41. +1

[Still Sensible]

44. It's CNBC, largely Trump & Market cheerleaders

treat them like Rasmussen and assume you need to add 3-4 pts to the democrat and remove 3-4 pts from the repug… So it's probably Biden by about 6-8 points.

Now if we can only get the turnout!