A scary, but important, reminder that we're in this for the long haul.

[Bleacher Creature]

Link to tweet

[Coventina]

1. *gulp*

[CurtEastPoint]

2. Is that a valid comparison, though? By their nature, aren't all viruses unpredictable?

[jberryhill]

5. It's not a prediction

We just don't know.

We have to be prepared for things to get worse while certainly hoping they might get better.

We don't seem to be good at doing those two things at the same time and recognizing the role of each. Sort of like when a worst-case hurricane prediction doesn't pan out, and people say, "Oh, gee, we got excited for nothing." Well, no, we took the opportunity to see how well prepared we are, when that happens, regardless of whether it turned out to be necessary.

You just can't plan by assuming a best case scenario. You assume the worst, and hope for the best.

[CurtEastPoint]

10. Yes. Exactly. You assume the worst, and hope for the best.

[SoonerPride]

3. But we aren't even in a downhill part of a curve

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

At best we are in a plateau.



But we aren't declining and as states open up we should just see a rapid uptick.

[crickets]

13. *sigh* nt

[jberryhill]

4. This is why it is particularly difficult to have "leadership" that can't think beyond a news cycle

Good things can happen. A remarkable discovery of some kind, or improved treatment options, along with cheap testing, contact tracing and isolation, etc.. Perhaps we could also find a way to mitigate economic impacts so that nobody is in mortal fear of losing food, shelter, and other basic needs for the time being.

But, with Dr. Knowlittle running the show in this country, and Senator No in charge up the street, then we are right good and well fucked when it comes to any sort of enlightened strategy for dealing with these circumstances, as opposed to short-term tactics merely to try to look good while being too utterly stupid to even pull that off.

[renate]

6. I can understand why so many people think we're on a downward trend and it'll all be over soon

The number of cases went up, plateaued (in the worst hotspots with the strictest quarantines), and are on their way back down. Humans are built to see patterns. So I get it.

What I do not understand is why the federal government, for Trump's own sake if not for anybody else's, isn't simply explaining "Deaths are going down BECAUSE we're shut down. They're going to go right back up if we reopen without testing. The downward trend is EXACTLY why we have to keep doing what we're doing." Do they think a second wave magically won't happen? Do they think a second wave won't make them look even worse than they already do? Why aren't they explaining why staying shut down is important instead of just wishing and hoping?

It's not the job of Joe or Jane Average to figure out the epidemiology of pandemics. They're just looking at the shape of the curve and assuming the pandemic is naturally fading away. I feel so sorry for people in GOP-led areas who are still engaging in the wishful thinking that got us into this mess.

[SoonerPride]

7. I agree.

Does this look like we're on some downhill slide towards zero?

It sure as hell doesn't to me.

[gristy]

9. The number of cases did not plateau

The number of new cases plateaued. Big difference, and it is this difference that is causing great confusion and bad decisions to be made. And no, it's not just you!

[wendyb-NC]

8. That is frightening.

This might seem far removed from the statistics, but it shocks me to hear and see those who parade around with signs and guns expressing their anger and out rage, over the stay home order. Do they think that they know better, do they think that they are immune from being horribly sick, then ending up in a refrigerated container.

We've seen that many essential workers, as in Police, Fire Fighters, EMTs, Paramedics, Doctors, Nurses,Nurses Aides, Respiratory Therapists, Transportation Workers, House Keepers, Maintenance workers, Store Clerks, etc., have gotten sick themselves with Covid-19

[Hoyt]

11. During Spanish Flu, they didn't even use oxygen therapy, much less ventilators. Nor did

they have antibiotics when bacterial pneumonia developed. Hydration, etc., is available today. Point is, I think the care is better, even without the possibility of some miracle drug being found. But, that is no reason to loosen isolation.

[LeftInTX]

12. Also the quarantine (social distancing) or whatever it was back then was basically whiplash

In the fall of 2018
San Antonio was closed for almost a month. Then it completely reopened on November 11th with a big parade.
After a month of cases rising, it closed again for 2 weeks. It opened up completely again on December 22nd.

It almost seems a like "putting out the fire" type of approach