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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.
The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.
The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.
There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow, the C.D.C. warned.
The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation right back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways as the health care system grew overloaded.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-7b42d0f5
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)May the odds be ever in your favor.
Stallion
(6,474 posts)morillon
(1,185 posts)I haven't seen reporting on problems at Hopkins with its model. Is it too far low or high? Any links would be much appreciated.
blitzen
(4,572 posts)I don't see any projection models on the Johns Hopkins site. Their stuff all seems to be based on data to date.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)Johns Hopkins has been mostly involved in tracking the confirmed cases, from what Ive seen.
brush
(53,773 posts)Chainfire
(17,536 posts)idziak4ever1234
(1,257 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)... then deleted it after seeing this one.
dhill926
(16,337 posts)we need to hunker down longer, but it ain't gonna happen. Wait until the summer and fall are shut down....civil unrest in a big way...
Chainfire
(17,536 posts)Trump will see that as the way he would lose the election.
Voltaire2
(13,023 posts)The desire to "resume normal" is very strong, and the utter failure of national leadership from the Trump regime is not helping.
Stay home and stay safe if you possibly can.