My Prediction Went Sideways

[ProfessorGAC]

You may recall that I posted a little under 2 weeks ago that the active ingredient used in sanitizing wipes was again going to consumer product customers instead of strictly I&I.
I went to store today, & still no wipes!
A little math:
2 tankers a week is 40,000kg. It's roughly 30% active microbicide. So, 12,000kg of active ingredient per week.
The solution used on wipes is 1,500ppm (0.15%) active microbicide. There's about 3 grams of solution per wipe or 4.5mg on each wipe.
So, shipping 12 billion mg of active per week leads to 2&2/3rds billion wipes per week. 100 wipes in the can, 26.7 million bottles per week. More the 3.8 million, or 10,000 cases a day!
Where are they?
Either what I was told was wrong or there's something weird going on.
Sorry for misleading anyone.
I'm shocked that the supply hasn't recovered.

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. A month ago I read that Clorox was estimating June or July to replenish

their supply of the wipes that we buy at Costco.

[ProfessorGAC]

2. There's Still Something Up Then

The math doesn't work otherwise. There should be, at full production, a bottle for every 13 people each week.
I also would have thought the I&I supply chain would be full by now.

[Eliot Rosewater]

9. IDK, what I do know is rump and the GOP are physically intercepting

life saving materials meant for people who did not vote for him.

There is no level or depth of mass voluntary manslaughter they will not participate in.

[ProfessorGAC]

10. I Suppose

But, is Walmart, or Albertson's going to buy aftermarket.
Unless the military is super stocking their supplies, what would do with all of it?

[Eliot Rosewater]

11. Google Clorox and wipes and so on and see what you see...

If you are taking the position they should be doing it faster, that is one thing, what are THEY saying?

[ProfessorGAC]

17. Read Business Insider Article

I don't buy everything in there.
Those are typically 5 day operations at 85% utilization. Add 2 days, and full utilization and there's 40% excess capacity.
None of that is mentioned in that article. Just something vague about capacity.

[bigtree]

3. my store just ran out

...we had dispensers in about 10 different places and all of them are now empty and in the back. It did look like they were going to have those for the forseeable future, but we only got the one initial delivery.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. This Is Odd

They either have active agent or they don't!
I suppose we could imagine those manufacturers have a CV issue. But, I've been in those plants.
They're super clean, regular sanitized (obviously they have the materials) & people aren't working 3 feet apart. 30 feet or more is what I've seen.
In 2 weeks, they should be making enough to have 1 bottle for every 6 people in the country.
And, they don't export the finished goods, except probably to Canada. Even if those multinationals have markets overseas, they would import the active ingredients, not the finished wipes. Way better economics.
I'm going to make a couple calls and double check the info I got week before last.

[SWBTATTReg]

5. Ha ha...I am not laughing at you, you have made some very reasonable assumptions, etc.,

did your assumptions also include that logic and data does not work w/ these people, but instead greed and such, instead? Perhaps they're holding onto supplies longer to gen up better prices for themselves?

[ProfessorGAC]

6. Not Really, No?

The contracts with major retailers are already set by time & volume.
Those retailers have contractual protection against price increases without advanced notice & within the increase levels allowed in the contract.
Clorox & R&B are in no position to dictate to Walmart or Target.
And, I don't see a mfr/retailer collusion.
The retailers don't care if the manufacturers make a higher margin. They want to pay the price they agreed upon.
So, I did momentarily consider it, but the legalities, especially in a declared emergency, make such behavior extremely risky for a small, temporary gain.

[Bev54]

7. We have stock in the stores in Canada

at least in my city, there doesn't seem to be any problems, picked some more up last week.

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Getting Weirder

Lysol?
R-B has a plant in Mississauga. I've been there.
But, they get the active ingredient from the US.
Been in the plant that makes the material many, many times. I even know the market name of the compound R-B buys.
I'm wondering if they've prioritized hot spot areas within the US. I haven't traveled far enough to see what the near Chicago stores look like.

[Lars39]

12. I'm in a hotspot,

I've seen where they are in the store, but limited quantity, and only for in-store shopping. Not even offered for pick-up or delivery.

[MissB]

13. I read an article recently that one of the manufacturers was getting permission to produce

them in soft sided containers (think: baby wipe packs). They had to get permission from the feds to do that. I guess the hard container production is fairly limited so that could be the hold up for many manufacturers.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. Perhaps The Packaging Is The Problem

But, they're buying the active ingredient in bulk.
If they can't use it, they wouldn't be buying more.
I'm still waiting on a return call.
Somebody in transportation will know if my prior info is correct.

[MissB]

16. Here is the link

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/business/disinfectant-wipes-shortage-coronavirus/index.html

[winstars]

15. I read the same thing. A plastic container shortage. Crazy because the are throwaways!!!

Recycle the empties???

[Horse with no Name]

18. What I have noticed in Dallas is that there is very little name brand bleach

Products. They are selling the cheap cheap bleach in small bottles at the regular premium big bottle price.
I thought that the stores were trying to maximize profits.
Why not sell a .99 cent bottle of bleach for $6?

[cwydro]

19. I'm not a fan of sanitizer, but made several bottles for a friend.

Not difficult to make if you have the ingredients.

Luckily, I always was in the habit of buying Isopropyl alcohol and always have aloe Vera gel, plus they’ve stocked in a lot of aloe Vera gel at Publix - or at least it was there last time I shopped.

[ProfessorGAC]

21. Not Referring To That Type

In wipes the antimicrobial is a chlorine donating, non-bleaching organic compound.
My professional experience was in that reaction chemistry & the end use.
Funny thing though, is around here, none of the stores have bottles of IPA either. For weeks!
When I was working, I could have gotten it by the gallon for free. So much for that.
I made my own hand sanitizer too.
I happened to have some ethoxylated fatty acid (obsolete sample stock a couple years ago) and that worked wonders as a thickening agent. Other than green dye in the aloe, it looks just like the commercial brands.
I spent years working in a lab. I better be able to make my own sanitizer.

[LeftInTX]

20. I bought store-brand wipes on March 28 at Walgreens

I bought both a canister and a travel size soft pack.

(Same active ingredients as Lysol)

[ProfessorGAC]

22. That Suggests....

...the smaller private-label suppliers are:
1. Getting the active
2. Are catching up on supply
And, the multinationals can't?

[LeftInTX]

23. I grabbed the last of them

They also had Clorox Bleach the week before.

I haven't been to Walgreens in 3 weeks and when I went three weeks ago, they didn't have any disinfection supplies. Hit or miss.