Once a week if not more, I survey all state websites or other news for county totals

[nitpicker]

And tally up each county with 200+ cumulative positive CV cases. Depending on the state, it's sometimes more like 100+, or even lower.

IF a county has jumped, for example from 400 positive cases to 700 in a week:

1. Does this county have meat processing plants?

2. If not, did they just test a ton of prison inmates and employees?

3. Are nursing homes being cited as adding to 1 and/or 2?

If it "jumped" from 100 to 140, they may have focused testing on nursing homes.

4. Are there other factors being cited, such as a funeral three weeks ago? Or ((please NOT let this happen)) masses watching the flyovers, plunging into the oceans, etc??

5. If otherwise unexplained, is the state touting "massively increased testing capability" so that sharp increases in test results lead to more positive results reported?

AT THIS TIME, most states are reporting a daily percentage increase of under 5% in cumulative positive cases.

Looks decent, right? BUT:

1. If you have limited tests and only give the same number of tests each day, you aren't finding some of the positive cases;

2. THIS REFLECTS ACTIONS TAKEN A WEEK OR MORE AGO . Now that over half the states are in the process of loosening restrictions, how soon will it be before backyard parties spring back up (and down people)?

IF we don't start seeing daily cumulative case reports percentages jumping back up by Memorial Day (outside of outbreaks at meat processing plants and prisons), I will be pleasantly surprised.

But in the meantime, if you see TP or meat if you eat it, grab it.

[tblue37]

1. K&R for visibility. nt

[Lulu KC]

2. Oh, I love this!

Analysis! Data! Thank you!

[Lulu KC]

3. P.S.

I wish you would save things in your journal. I would like to follow your thought process.

[nitpicker]

5. The data for the last couple of days has been affected by the inclusion of weekend results

I collect state totals each day in the 5 am-8 am period. That's less subject to changes in when-in-the-afternoon-to-report-updates.

(why does it take so long?? eyeballing the reports one state website plus DC at a time, typing it into a spreadsheet...)

That means that for many states, the data around on Tuesday morning was reported Monday as of the end of Sunday.

Do all state coroners and labs work 24 hours a day on weekends? WITH WHAT MONEY? Let alone non-hospital care centers.

By Thursday, there will probably be reported "positives and deaths" rebounds as delayed reports come in.

BUT for the data junkies: over 10 days, there were (per Johns Hopkins University data) about 284K new positives, and 2000 new deaths a day on average. That is why I am SWAGing estimates of 240-250K dead by the end of July.

I HOPE IHME's optimism is right that, for example, everyone gets so scared at the first hints of resurgence that everyone stays home or wears face coverings well past July 4, cuts this to the 134K cited at the end of July instead of their higher end estimate of 243K.

But we shall see.

[SammyWinstonJack]

4. K&R

[jimlup]

6. It helps to be a vegetarian...

No need for meat so what is all the worry? I mean, honestly, I didn't understand the tp thing either... there are other obvious solutions other than paper or have we totally forgotten our origins?