Economist/YouGov Poll

[idziak4ever1234]

Hi there-

This poll shows that Biden holds a 4 point edge over Trump (46% to 42%). How on earth is it that close?

[Amishman]

1. Rally around the flag effect

It's actually pretty damning that Trump hasn't had much of a boost.

[idziak4ever1234]

2. Ok. Thanks!

[VMA131Marine]

3. Never just look at one poll ...

Look at all the recent polls. That way you can see if that one poll is an outlier or a continuation of a trend. Don’t forget the importance of margin of error. Are all the recent polls within each other’s MOEs? The poll number that’s reported (the mean) is the most probable level of support but for a standard probability distribution the likelihood the mean represents the actual level of support is only 40%.

[idziak4ever1234]

4. Wow! Thank you!

[Yavin4]

8. See my post #7

Biden's average lead in the polls this month is 5.5%

[BGBD]

5. The average of polls

has Biden at about +6. That's been stable for a year. Also, Trump level of support and disadvantage in polls puts him in the worst shape for reelection of any incumbent President since Hoover.

As was pointed out very effectively above, Trumps support is sitting at around 40%. That's awful for an incumbent when you consider that incumbents tend to be at a disadvantage among undecided voters. That stands to reason since if you are undecided you likely aren't very impressed with the incumbent, so voting for a change is an understandable position. Undecideds will usually break 2/1 against the incumbent, so if you are looking at a poll that is 40 - 45, that's more like 45-55, third party voters notwithstanding.

Also, consider that in 2016 Trump won among voters who had negative opinions of both candidates, and he won by a lot. This time around, Biden is leading with this group, and it isn't all that close either.

[ooky]

6. What's holding him up in polls has to be just about all ideolgic/wedge issue voters at

this point. Who would be dumb enough actually vote for what HE is doing? It's guns, socialism and other such nonsense.

[Yavin4]

7. Look at the average of the polls. Don't just look at one poll.

This is the 4th poll this month. Biden's average lead this month is 5.5% which is in keeping with his national average for the past 3 years.


Past 3 years of polls show a consistent Biden lead:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls

[Sugarcoated]

9. Blue wave coming