The State of the States: The Legislatures
UVA Center for Politics (Larry Sabato)
Theres a lot at stake on the federal level this year: the presidency, the Senate, and the House are all up for grabs. While there has (rightfully) been considerable attention and speculation dedicated to these larger races, the upcoming state legislature elections have not received the same level of consideration.
With more than 5,000 districts at stake this year, there are many opportunities at the state level for either party to maintain or improve their advantage. We at CNalysis acknowledge the importance of these elections; we are currently casting ratings for most of these districts 5,233 to be exact as well as their respective state legislative chambers.
Before getting into the specific ratings, lets take a look at where things stand right now. Map 1 shows the current party control of state legislative chambers. Notice that there are only two states where party control of chambers is divided: In Minnesota, Democrats control the state House and Republicans hold the state Senate, while in Alaska, Republicans hold the state Senate while Democrats nominally control the state House thanks to a coalition of Democrats, Republicans and Independents (Republicans actually hold more seats in the chamber). Also, Nebraskas unicameral state legislature is technically nonpartisan, although functionally its GOP-controlled. Overall, control of state legislatures aligns with 2016 presidential partisanship: Democrats control all the chambers in states won by Hillary Clinton except for the Minnesota Senate, while Republicans control all the chambers in states won by Donald Trump except for the Alaska House.
Overall, Republicans control 58 chambers, and Democrats control 40. Again, this tally excludes Nebraska.