Model That's Correctly Predicted Popular Vote 16 Times Shows Trump Losing in Landslide

[sunonmars]

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/05/20/model-thats-correctly-predicted-popular-vote-16-times-shows-trump-losing-in-landslide.html

Using economic factors such as unemployment and inflation, Oxford Economics predicts former Vice President Joe Biden will sweep the popular vote with 65%.

Trump would win just 35% of the vote under this modeling. This would be a historic and humiliating defeat for an incumbent on par with William H. Taft’s loss in 1912.

Neither party has won less than 40% in a two horse race since 1972, so the model should be taken with caution. However, before the pandemic Oxford Economics had Trump winning comfortably with 55% support.

The model predicts Biden winning Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. These are all states that voted for Trump in 2016, some by wafer thin margins.

If the Oxford forecast is correct, Biden would win 328 electoral college votes, while Trump would garner just 210. Under those circumstances, the Democratic victory would be historic and substantial.

It is worth noting this is based on the popular vote as Oxford Economics does not specifically model electoral college votes.

Oxford Economics’ model was incorrect only twice: in 1968 when Richard Nixon staged the political comeback of the century, and in 1976 when Jimmy Carter surprised many by defeating incumbent Gerald Ford.

[niyad]

1. Right now, it would be great to lose him in an actual landslide.

[sunonmars]

2. ROFL

[ZZenith]

9. Excellent!

[gristy]

15. Clever!

[yardwork]

20. Win!

[Hermit-The-Prog]

24. I have a wheelbarrow and some rocks to donate to the cause.

[niyad]

25. Thank you. They will be most useful.

[roamer65]

3. I smell coattails.

1932 level coattails.

[pwb]

4. I hope I live to see him totally humiliated.

For those he killed.

[RT Atlanta]

6. yes !

and a generational type humiliation that only he will appreciate where his kids (and their children, etc.) are all pariahs and have to change their last names, move out of the country, etc. (something that will make the Nixons' time post-White House to be a stroll through the garden in retrospect)

[SoonerPride]

5. Kick and rec

[Cirque du So-What]

7. We still need to fight like hell

Take nothing for granted.

[Thomas Hurt]

8. Don't get too excited this isn't over until Trump is bodily removed from the WH.

[42bambi]

14. Wouldn't it be just like weasel Trump to skip out of the US as soon as Biden wins.

[Arkansas Granny]

10. That's all well and good, but I won't draw an easy breath until Biden

wins the popular vote, wins the electoral college and is inaugurated.

[Delmette2.0]

17. One step at a time

[struggle4progress]

11. Can we win? Hell, yeah! provided we don't act like a herd of dumb-fuck over-confident slackers

[DeminPennswoods]

12. A week or so ago while appearing on Deadline:WH,

Heilman said that elections are primarily won and lost in the spring (now), not in the fall, and Trump's numbers are getting baked in right now.

[ibegurpard]

13. Missouri?

Highly doubtful. The others i can see.

[dsc]

16. If that isn't a showing of how insane the EC is nothing is

With barely a third of the vote Trump would still win 242 electoral votes. That is nuts. That Nixon race he won 49 states.

[Poiuyt]

18. There's a more in-depth analysis of the Oxford report on CNN's website

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

[Yavin4]

19. What will he do if he loses that badly?

What will he do in the months before the inauguration? Will he even show up for the inauguration?

[crickets]

21. Screw that.

I want more. GOTV and humiliate this pig with an irrefutable, in your face, fuck off forever 75% landslide.

[peggysue2]

22. This is the sort of loss that will deny Trump and the GOP effectively bellowing:

Election theft, election theft. They would no doubt try their damnest but look pretty silly if only picking up 35% of the vote.

Personally? I want Trump and his enablers crushed, flattened, squashed into oblivion. Twenty percent is too much for me. But I could live (I guess) with 35%.

[JI7]

23. Im sure he would lose in a fair election. The worry is more over voter suppression

and other ways to cheat.

That's why it's important everyone make sure to vote. Even if you are in the safest blue area. and same goes for those in very red areas. make sure you cast your democratic vote.