Exclusive: US has three months to rebuild medical supplies stockpile, Obama administration scientist

[nitpicker]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/exclusive-obama-us-national-stockpile-trump-coronavirus

Exclusive: US has three months to rebuild medical supplies stockpile, Obama administration scientists warn

Ed Pilkington in New York
Published on Thu 21 May 2020 07.00 BST

Nine top scientists who advised Barack Obama in the White House are warning that the US has just three months to rebuild its national stockpile of emergency medical supplies or risk further drastic shortages of testing kits and protective gear should coronavirus strike again in the fall.

The dramatic warning from Obama’s former science advisers contains an implicit criticism of Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic. In a seven-page missive, the group says that federal government preparations for a possible resurgence of the disease must be triggered immediately if a repeat of the “extraordinary shortage of supplies” that was seen in March and April is to be avoided.

“Preparation for a resurgence needs to be initiated now. It needs to be at a national level, in close collaboration and coordination with state and local officials,” the letter says.

The nine authors, led by John Holdren, Obama’s White House science adviser throughout his two terms in office, criticise the Trump administration for failing to act on numerous studies urging replenishment of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) in preparation for just the kind of health emergency unfolding today.

“The United States was unprepared for the supply needs of the spring 2020 Covid-19 pandemic,” the group says.

The scientists add: “There has been a persistent shortage of ventilators, testing kits, masks and other PPE [personal protective equipment] … In recent years the nation has let down its guard.”

The group of nine are among the most pre-eminent scientists in the country. In addition to Holdren, now at Harvard, they include Eric Lander of MIT and Harvard, Chris Chyba of Princeton and Susan Graham of UC Berkeley.

All nine were members of the Council of Advisors on Science and Technology assembled by Obama at the start of his presidency. Between 2009 and 2016 they co-wrote six reports for the president that touched on viral pandemics.

Though many other experts have offered advice on dealing with Covid-19, the connection between the nine and Obama sharpens their intervention. The former president is not responsible for any of the scientists’ findings, but he has been kept informed about the group’s progress since its inception.
(snip)

[nitpicker]

1. The Guardian text has a link to the report

for those that are interested.

[tanyev]

2. I don't get how this 'back in the fall' idea has gained so much traction.

COVID-19 hasn’t gone anywhere. All our social distancing has accomplished a bit of a downward slope in some places, but at the rate reopening is happening I expect things will get much worse in a few weeks.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. They Likely Mean Roaring Back

Continued safety practices should keep it flat for a while.
But, they may presume will get lax about masks, distancing, gathering, etc.
Then it "comes back" with a roar like it did in April & May.
Just a guess, but I don't read that they're implying it's already gone.

[Caliman73]

5. They are following modeling from 1918 influenza and other coronavirus outbreaks.

I agree that the virus hasn't really "gone away" as say, the seasonal flu does around April. SARS-CoV-2 is not following typical modeling, but there is an expectation that the spread will go down as the weather is consistently hotter and more humid. A lot of the modeling predicts that the virus does not spread quite as easily in humidity. Also, some studies are showing that it doesn't spread as easily outside mainly because length of exposure is one of the factors that influences contagion. People being outside more, spaced out of course, but not congregating in large crowds in closed settings, is supposed to reduce the spread.


The resurgence will happen in the fall/winter because it gets cold, dry, and people start going indoors for prolonged periods again.

[csziggy]

6. They seem to be extrapolating from previous viral outbreaks

With the 1918 flu, the second wave during the following fall and winter was worse than the original outbreak. If Covid-19 follows that pattern, it will be much worse later this year than it has been so far, even if there is a resurgence with the current re-openings.

[tanyev]

7. Thanks to all the replies. I do understand what you're saying,

that’s just more optimistic than what I fear will happen. Texas is opening up bars and bowling alleys tomorrow, restaurants to 50%, youth sport camps and programs on the 31st. Churches are raring to go. I expect spikes in July.

The one thing that has encouraged me is that every instant poll my local news has run has gone overwhelmingly (over 70%) in favor of going slower and stricter controls. If enough people voluntarily do the right thing, we might be able to keep it under control.

[csziggy]

8. I'm not very optimistic, either

But there is nothing I can do the change what is happening. My covidiot governor and senators (I'm in Florida) will not listen to anything I have to say. The only ting I can do is protect myself and try to make sure my husband is careful, too.

[Hugin]

3. This is the most important thing I've read in over a month.

It needs to be taken very seriously.