Has Minnesota trended more conservative lately or has it truly always been slightly left of center?

[Music Man]

Maybe native Minnesotans can help me dive into this. My dad's side of the family is from Minnesota, so it's always been a second home to me. Always followed the sports teams as well as the local politics though I have never lived there. A poll came out this week showing Biden leading 49-44, so it got me thinking.

I have long perceived Minnesota as a bastion of progressivism, having gone Democratic in every election since 1976 (the only state not to go to Reagan or either Bush). It's put up figures like Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale, Paul Wellstone, and Al Franken and has a highly active, engaged citizenry.

Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5 points, though Obama won it by over 10 points in both instances. Yes, Clinton was a flawed candidate, but I am curious from boots on the ground if this is reflective of a trend or really just where Minnesota has lain all along. Kerry won it only 51-48 and Gore by about 48-45, so again the degree of victory is maybe more reflective of the candidate. I also know that Minnesota has elected the likes of Tim Pawlenty, Norm Coleman, and Michele Bachmann.

Like many states, I wonder if Minnesota is really more a matter of urban vs. rural, a dichotomy between the liberal Twin Cities and other more conservative areas, and perhaps it's been varying degrees of purple and blue. The demographics have changed in some ways due to immigration, but is anything changing about the demographics or viewpoints of white Minnesotans? Is there a reactionary element to the citizenry?

I can stomach a lot of things. Seeing my beloved Minnesota go to Trump would be crushing. Minnesotans have a reputation for being civilized, something that I hope will ultimately jive with Joe Biden's character rather than Donald Trump's, given that he's one of the meanest souls on the planet.

Skol!

[SouthernCal_Dem]

1. Minnesota may be following the trend of other midwestern states

Like Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio.

A sizable number of white people who are worse off than their parents and many pin the blame on minorities. The GOP has done a good job of brainwashing these folks.

The good news is states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas appear to be moving in the opposite direction.

[safeinOhio]

2. I think it boils down to

Urban vs rural. It then boils down to motivation.

[roamer65]

3. That's the main bifurcation in American politics right now.

Generally, Red=rural, blue=urban.

You are right, Safe.

[Progressive Jones]

10. It's true. I live on the line between Urban and Rural around here.

I'm 45 miles NW of Chicago. Beyond me to the West is Rural.
It overlaps where I live. It's Purple here, with the R's being fairly moderate. R's run this county, and actually do a good job.
It gets more Hard Core Red to the West.

[LizBeth]

4. +1

[pstokely]

5. outside the Twin Ciities area, it's older and whiter than average

the MAGAt demographic

[question everything]

6. You need to look beyond Presidential candidates

Google Minnesota senators and governors and you will see that Minnesota has been electing many Republican senators and governors. Minnesota flipped the House in 2018 but the MN senate - which was not voted for that year - has been a Republican one.

Minnesota has been the only state with a divided house and senate which really, is misleading since both were Republicans until the House alone was voted in 2018.

[dflprincess]

8. But Republicans have not won a statewide race in years

Largely thanks to the metro area and Duluth.

[MichMan]

7. Jesse Ventura

[judeling]

9. Minnesota is a purple State leaning towards blue now.

That has been true for a long time. But partly due to history and partly do to its diverse economy there have always been a lot of swingy districts that force a level of pragmatism. With the most engaged electorate in the country it really hasn't except on occasion let the Republicans go full crazy. That is starting to change and the GOP will feel the recoil.

But a solid moderate-ish Republican can win here statewide.

Clinton got hurt in Minnesota because there were no Statewide races on the ballot. But there were actual contested races in the Redder Congressional districts. Complacency was the order of the day in Blue Minnesota. Ellison in particular hardly mad a push in CD5. This let the third parties make a push for Major party status. Don't forget it wasn't that long ago that Jesse Ventura was governor.

The State House and Senate flip back and forth all the time. That is how swing Minnesota is and was. This census will probably end tha tradition and I expect Minnesota will become much Bluer.

[Olafjoy]

11. Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman are not that long ago

Dumpster Fire came so close in Minnesota. GOTV will be very important there. 2018 turnout was hopeful. Have to get large Twin Cities and suburban women along with Duluth turnouts.