General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBREAKING: Biden now +10.2 and +10.4 on RCP and 538 Poll of Polls averages
BIden has crossed the double digit threshold for his lead. Something Hillary never cam close to after securing the nomination.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
Wow!!! Keep working hard, GOTV!!!! Biden is now well over 50% too which is huge.
51.1 to 40.9 on RCP
51.5 to 41.1 on 538
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)They mean nothing, even close to the election. We must GOTV! Every vote will matter! Do not be lulled into a false sense of security! A lot can happen between now and November. Plus people lie to pollsters, especially the GOP who want us to think it is in the bag hoping people stay home.
Just stop it with the polls.
Mike 03
(16,616 posts)It's possible to both be excited by the polls and to work hard.
Being hopeful and excited about the polls is not equal to complacency.
If we aren't excited and hopeful, what is the point? The next five months would be pure agony if we weren't hopeful about something.
Some people work harder when they are motivated by the prospect of winning. Ask any athlete if it's possible to both work hard and simultaneously believe you are going to win.
Demsrule86
(68,669 posts)Trump is an incumbent who has been a terrible president. He will lose. And of course we have to vote and work to win...but the remember 16 meme is false and also dampens down the vote. It is 2020.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Maybe your brain is different; if so, then by all means be depressed if it motivates you.
Johnny2X2X
(19,114 posts)There are millions of Americans who go to bed everyday stressed out by Trump and wake up in the morning stressed out by Trump. Knowing that we are running a winning campaign so far is valuable.
And Hillary never had a lead like this, was never ahead in the swing states like this and what's more, the undecideds this time around are half in number than they were at the same point in 2016. Hillary was up 5.9 at this point in 2016, but there were 16% of the voters undecideds, those are the voters Trump won to make up the amount he needed to barely win, this time around there are 8% of the voters who are undecided.
Polls do matter, doesn't mean we work any less hard. And in fact, these polls help our side in that they depress the other side as well as force Trump into potential mistakes because he gets desperate.
Good polling numbers help fund raising, they help energize the campaign, and they help give data on what resources need to be spent and how. They provide great value.
Apollo Zeus
(251 posts)we lost MI, WI and PA in 2016 in part because the campaign's polls projected them winning those states and they pulled back. 5 months to go.
TristanIsolde
(272 posts)the rest is cherry on the top.
Demsrule86
(68,669 posts)nominee. And we barely lost. Also Biden has won big with voters who Hillary was weak with in swing states.
Apollo Zeus
(251 posts)>>A similar situation unfolded in Wisconsin. According to several operatives there, the campaigns state office and local officials scrambled to raise nearly $1 million for efforts to get out the vote in the closing weeks. Brooklyn headquarters had balked at funding it themselves, arguing that the state already had a decent-sized footprint because of the labor-backed super PAC For Our Future and pointing out that Clinton had never trailed in a single poll in Wisconsin.<<
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2016/11/report-neglect-and-poor-strategy-helped-cost-clinton-three-critical-states.html
Hope they have learned from these mistakes. Got to "play like we're behind" all the way to the end.
Johnny2X2X
(19,114 posts)She was going to win cleanly before the Comey swung about 3-4 points away from her 10 days before the election. Comey doesn't do that and she wins by 5-6 points and by 50 EVs. Thing is, she neglected MI, PA, and WI until the very end, she doesn't do that and none of this would have happened.
The only chance Trump has is to cheat, and he will try.