"The reason why Trump will lose" and how he could eke out re-lection but wont'

[Demovictory9]

But I’m not basing my prediction solely on polling. And I wasn’t someone who publicly claimed that Clinton would triumph in 2016. The main reason I say Trump will lose is that he’s bad at being president, and with the coronavirus he’s found a way to be bad in public.

https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-the-reason-why-donald-trump-will-lose-is-important/

Americans habitually reject incompetence in their leaders. Before being feted as a kindly painter, George W. Bush was the most loathed man in the country, because he got us bogged down in a war based on lies, let an American city drown, and presided over a crushing financial crisis. He was bad at his job, in public. Herbert Hoover was bad at his job as millions suffered during a presidency shaped by the Depression. The nation rejected them. They’re in the process of rejecting Trump.

There’s a way for a hypothetical president to succeed in the next four months and eke out re-election: universal masking, massive support for testing and army field hospitals and contact tracing where needed, a wide-open money spigot to individuals financially affected. It’s actually a pretty simple formula.

Trump won’t do it. He’s taken the position that everything’s fine, and thinks that moving off that would show weakness. And even if he wanted to do what might seem simple for a replacement-level president, he’s so far below that standard as to make such steps impossible. This is why he should, actually, resign, as Chris Hayes called for yesterday. Instead we’ll have to settle for him being snubbed at the polls in four months.

Trump’s entire political career has been built on hucksterism and grievance. You can fool people with hucksterism for a long time, but not once slapped by reality. Then the sheen wears off. BSing his way through served Trump well in business, which we’re discovering is much more forgiving than government. But you can only whine for so long, as Biden noted yesterday, before it becomes pathetic. Trump can’t figure out how to attack the coronavirus, and without doing that work he cannot attack Biden. He knows he’s going to lose (Biden “is going to be president because some people don’t love me, maybe,” Trump said to Sean Hannity on Friday), because he’s incapable of the governing that would prevent it.

This is the important point. A president has to be president, not just play one on TV. They cannot just express competence, but actually succeed. The difficult truth is that Trump is carrying on a tradition. We’ve done very little to arrest our long-term crises for several decades. The next president needs to actually deal with them. FDR’s descendants wrote an open letter to Biden, urging outsized ambition to fill in the existing cracks exposed by this crisis. Passivity—at income and wealth inequality, at unequal treatment, at structural racism, at a raging pandemic but also the everyday failures we faced before—will only lead to disapproval and decline.

https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-the-reason-why-donald-trump-will-lose-is-important/

[Hoyt]

1. He can't even attrack Biden on age, his kids, or anything.

Even where Biden might be a bit “weak,” he beats trump.

trump only has racism, hatred, gunz, and similar crud to run on.

[aikoaiko]

2. I agree with you mostly except for one thing.

There is about 45% of the voting population who will be happy to vote for Trump as a middle finger to Black right, women's rights, LGBTQ rights, Indigenous people's rights, LatinX rights, and liberals of any flavor.

The more of a fuck-up Trump is, the bigger the perceived middle finger.

Hyper reverse partisanship, if you will.

Yes we can win this election, but we can't underestimate the massive numbers of foolish voters.

[Demovictory9]

3. some will vote against their own interests to keep others down

[keithbvadu2]

5. +1... Consider LBJ's comment about giving the lowest white man someone to look down on.

Consider LBJ's comment about giving the lowest white man someone to look down on.

Hitler made Jews the 'someone' to look down on.

[aikoaiko]

7. Yes, and I've been shocked at just how many people did that and will do that.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic or contrary. I'm just perplexed, shocked, and saddened by the vileness and vindictiveness of my fellow Americans.

We must do everything we can to win.

[Lanius]

4. Trump has a base of about 30% of the country (probably 45-50% of those who vote).

These people will vote for him just to spite those they hate.

[AmericanCanuck]

9. I don't think they are that high

Only about 25%

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. A convincing argument, with caveats

The argument laid out above makes sense, BUT:

They will continue to work to suppress the votes and challenge the results.

They will continue to work to manipulate social media with lies, likely with the help of Russia and others.

I think the unanswered question is:

Will the suffering and turmoil the country is certain to undergo over the next 4 months, without proper leadership, be enough to sustain or even expand Biden’s Lead in crucial states, or are there unimaginable, insurmountable evils yet to come?

[BannonsLiver]

8. Here are some things that I think will really fuck Trump over close to the election

1. If schools are unable to reopen safely. I’m not a parent but I know enough parents to realize many were frustrated with distance learning. Plus, many seem to need a mental break. Right now the states that are tight and states he needs, like Florida and Texas, are trending toward not being able to reopen. That won’t play well in the suburbs Trump will need.

2. If there’s no football, particularly college football. Right now we are trending toward no football. I think for a lot of people in my area of the country that will be a crushing emotional blow that will come with a lot of anger.