Joe Scar and James Carville both are saying Trump will not run. Who thinks

[doc03]

they are right? I think if his polls continue they way they have been he may find some kind
of excuse to drop out. He can't stand losing.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. Forced out perhaps with pardon deals to just go away. nt

[TreasonousBastard]

2. I keep saying Nixon redux-- there will come a point where he will have no friends in the Senate.

[doc03]

5. So far they are still sticking with him though nt

[TreasonousBastard]

9. So far, and Nixon had a looming impeachment.

[samsingh]

3. if the supreme court sides with congress to see his financial records

that may be the final push he needs.

Especially if the records show how much money he made off foreign interests.

[elleng]

8. Could be.

[33taw]

18. I don't think republicans care how he made his money. They think he is a financial wizard.

Certainly, his base doesn’t care.

[samsingh]

30. the records will show who paid him

[Renew Deal]

69. Are they announcing any more rulings before September?

I agree with your thinking.

[samsingh]

70. i think the remaining ones are coming up this week.

the abortion ruling
trump financial records ruling
others

[SoonerPride]

4. I think he will quit.

His narcissistic personality disorder will not allow him to lose.

He’d rather quit than be labeled a loser.

[Thomas Hurt]

6. His ego won't let him...

being President feeds his pathology, and I think he believes he should be the Putin of the US. President until he drops.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Let's play along and guess who would be his replacement.

I still think Trump runs, but if he does drop out or resign before the end of August, who would they nominate at their convention?

Anybody want to venture a guess?

Mine is John Kasich

[doc03]

10. A friend of mine thinks Mitt Romney will try and save the party. nt

[First Speaker]

17. They hate him too much. Likelier to be somebody like Cotton...

[SoonerPride]

24. Chris Christie

[shanti]

74. Yes, Cotton

He has been getting some press lately.

[anamnua]

31. That is the sort of thing I dread

Last edited Mon Jun 29, 2020, 04:56 PM - Edit history (1)

That he will be replaced by someone like Kasich who is somewhat more conventional and somewhat more electable.

[Funtatlaguy]

36. I agree. The never Trumpers would flock right back to Kasich.

[RDANGELO]

11. I think they are wrong.

He cannot admit to personal deficiencies. He will fall into the delusion that it is anybody's fault but his, the deep state, the media. He is more likely to commit suicide.

[doc03]

14. Hey that would work for me, suicide that is nt

[Hoyt]

12. That may be one reason Biden is being cautious.

He could well be running against someone else, and it won’t be Pence.

[Eliot Rosewater]

13. Here is what I can promise you and I will bet anyone $1000 on it as well.

He will not lose...

What I mean is the following:

He will not allow in his mind that he loses, therefore what he will do is either

1. win because putin inteferes and we cant vote by mail or red states refuse to certify their vote kicking in 12th amendment which guarantees he wins

or

2. he doesnt run, as they are guessing

or

3. he does, loses and refuses to accept said loss and throws us into civil war...

What he will NOT do is run, lose and leave the WH on his own without starting violence. He will NEVER do that.

[doc03]

16. I agree they will have to drag him out of the Whitehouse if he loses.. nt

[elleng]

27. and We the People will be happy to do it!

[demtenjeep]

39. Carville said there would be people on the TR that would gladly do an extraction

procedure

says the military can't stand him

[doc03]

29. 12th Amendment please explain that one nt

[marie999]

48. Read the following to get the best answers to the electoral college.

"Library of Congress Congressional Research Service Memorandum Overview of Electoral College Procedure and the Role of Congress November 17, 2000" and "Taegan Goddard's Electoral Vote Map How Are Electors Chosen" A quick thing, the electors are chosen by the party which receives the most popular votes in the state. They are chosen in different ways, but the party that gets the popular vote picks them. Taegan breaks it down by states. The winner must get a majority of all electors which will happen unless some third party wins enough states to keep anyone from getting a majority. Since that won't happen, don't worry about it. Also in the Constitution, the president's term ends at noon on January 20, so if trump loses but won't leave the WH, he is no longer the president, and the Secret Service will escort him out of the building. Also, he will not have any power. He will not have the backing of Congress, The Supreme Court, the Secret Service, or the military. Some people think he will find a way to stay. He will not and there will not be a Civil War. I have in my favorite pages the two documents. Is there a way a can post them? I am computer illiterate.

[StevieM]

38. I expect him to run, lose, and declare victory on election night.

He's definitely not going to concede defeat, no matter how bad the margin of his loss is.

[DURHAM D]

15. Pretty sure he will just do what he usually does...

file for bankruptcy.

[tulipsandroses]

19. I say no way. Even if he banks on Pence giving him a pardon. What about the possible NY charges?

Atty Gen Letitia James will be waiting for him when he is no longer president. I think he will fight to the death, literally to try to win before dropping out.

[elleng]

20. Somehow hard to imagine him giving Scar and Carville the 'last word' on this,

but I'm happy to imagine; enjoying this thread.

[tinrobot]

21. I give it 50/50. You're right in that he hates losing, but there are other factors at play.

If he resigns, he's legally liable. Staying in office prevents that.

He could use the powers of the office to skim more campaign/federal money for himself.

Putin may have opinions.

He may stay in the race simply out of spite.

Who knows. We're in uncharted waters.

[Cha]

22. BLOTUS' egomania, narcissistic arrogance &

Putin will make him think he can do it.

That's what I think.

[C_U_L8R]

23. If hard evidence on Russia comes forward...

McConnell will be forced to tell Trump he's got to go. There simply won't be a republican party with Trump around.

[Bev54]

25. I agree

and have felt that way since he was positioned in the office, I had my own doubts about it but am more committed to that way of thinking again. Told my son when he got elected he would likely fake some medical reason to step down.

[Darwin2019]

26. I'm thinking a fake stroke or heart attack

He could pretend to be sick, leave office, and then pretend to be so sick he could not possibly be prosecuted.

[demtenjeep]

40. I dream of a stroke so badly that the only thing working are his eyes and what's left of his mind

and he is forced to watch his sex object daughter/wife change his shitty diapers daily.

Melania? She will dash after the first day.

[Dan]

66. Plenty of poor sick people in jail...

[Alacritous Crier]

28. As I've been saying...

I think he will be out of the race and possibly out of office very shortly. I think he's gone too far.

[qazplm135]

32. nah

he is in it til the end...the grifting alone is why he will stay in. He needs that extra money. His whole life is about to collapse anyways...he'll no longer be of use so no more of that sweet sweet Russian money flowing in. He'll have bills to pay, he'll be investigated and have to pay for attorneys. No one will want to go to his properties anymore. His health is clearly declining.

He's going to die nearly broke in the next five years or less.

So no I don't see him leaving early. If he drops out, he can't claim it was fraud, or mail-in ballots, or ANTIFA or whatever.

[delisen]

33. If Putin wants him out, he is out.

Trump may be trying to make no-prosecution deals now and Carville has heard.

Trump has no problem with declaring victory and leaving or not running.

He may get a deal because he can still do immense damage between now and late January .

[winetourdriver01]

34. Pressure

There has to be some serious talks going on between the RNC and Senate republicans. They know they are on the verge of losing it ALL.

[Baitball Blogger]

35. If the courts rule that his taxes are open to the public,

Game over. The wizard of oz will be exposed.

[Hoyt]

41. Other than he makes nowhere near what he claims, what do you think

tax returns will show? Not much.

Now, if he has to release all financial info, going back years, something might show up.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

37. Bookmarking! I want to see how all these guesses play out.

[elleng]

42. Ditto!

[VMA131Marine]

43. Trump is in a no-win scenario

If he loses the election he’ll be one of the few incumbents to fail to get a second term. Right now, though things could change, Trump is looking at a lopsided loss, where states that have not voted Democratic since Bill Clinton vote for Biden. People will compare his presidency to those of Jimmy Carter and GHW Bush, which will drive him (more) insane. Also, he will have the ignominy in his mind of failing where Barack Obama succeeded. Obama lives rent free in Trump’s mind.

If he quits, Trump will be compared to Nixon, with the caveat that Trump was actually impeached whereas Nixon was not (though he certainly would have been).

He has destroyed the Trump brand. There is now a sizable majority of people who will never buy a Trump product, stay in a Trump hotel, or golf at a Trump course just on principle.

If Trump decides not to run for a second term now it will throw the GOP into chaos (admittedly, Trump is good at this). Who could they credibly nominate in Trump’s place? Pence? Hardly!

Besides, I’m not sure the reality of his situation has yet dawned on Trump. He still thinks of himself as the outsider trying to shake things up rather than a sitting president who has to account for his actual record. There’s an outside chance that Trump quits just before the election if it looks like the polls are heavily against him. He’ll make up some excuse like he always does. That way he can blame the margin of defeat on his dropping out rather than as a referendum on himself.

But, if he stays in and loses decisively, he going to try to burn everything down between the election and Inauguration Day. He’s a malignant narcissist, it’s part of his pathology.

[Skittles]

46. excellent analysis

yes indeed

[smirkymonkey]

57. +1000

[Dan]

67. Well interesting,

They would have to have a convention and nominate someone... interesting. Trump’s base still loves him and anyone that the GOP thinks might be electable - I bet Trump hates. And knowing Trump he will not campaign for anyone else - unless it’s his daughter.

They do not have a second choice.... they are fucked.

But more than that, we need to get rid of the GOP.

[ElementaryPenguin]

44. I also think he'll drop out.

Blame his deficit in the polls on the fake news, crooked press...

[vsrazdem]

45. He will resign before the election so Pence can pardon him for anything he did while President.

[elleng]

47. GOP operatives are for the first time raising the possibility that @realDonaldTrump could drop out

of the race if his poll numbers don’t rebound. Over the weekend I spoke to a sample of major players; one described Trumps current psyche as “fragile.”

Link to tweet

?

[backscatter712]

72. And this is why I've been retweeting about every disparaging hashtag on Twitter about Trump.

Yeah, I've been retweeting a lot of Lincoln Project stuff, and about every hashtag from #BabyGate to #CaptainTrumps to #TRE45ON.

When those tags get pumped up and end up on the Trending list, Trump himself sees them and gets triggered.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm with Sun Tsu - "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, irritate him." Trolling Trump is patriotic and fun!

[BGBD]

49. Whoever took "over"

would be sure to lose.

The Trump crazies would be in revolt and probably blame the candidate and party for "forcing" Trump out.

The convention would be a nightmare as lots of people made plays for the nomination. Who could build a coalition to get it? Kasich is absolutely hated by the conservative/taliban wing, so he'd have trouble getting it.

Here's the thing you have to think about. Trump is a narcissist and he's only dropping out if he knows he is going to lose otherwise and needs a way to save face for himself. He would probably fake an illness and not admit that he was going to lose. He's also want to be in position to handpick the replacement but he'd also want have deniability that he was the one who picked it because of the next point. He wouldn't want his replacement to win. He'd want to be able to say that he was on the path to winning, was forced to drop out because of something out of his control, and his replacement was weaker than him and lost it.

[Faux pas]

50. Only

if wishing and hoping makes it so.

[grantcart]

51. Another possibility is he kicks Pence off puts on Nikki Haley and promises to

Retire in 2022 paving the way for the first woman President.

Also declares Afghanistan over and pulls out all the troops

Declares Covid 19 over and $ 3,000 to every American

It's going to get wild

[GulfCoast66]

61. No way would she do it. She got early enough not to be too tarnished by him.

And she is young.

Plus, she is hated by the craziest of his supporters. Took down the confederate flag over S Carolina.

[grantcart]

73. That would be the only obstacle

The flag issue has been dead for asking time, especially after the Church shooting

In another month no state flag will have it and people won't remember why they were upset about it.

What still gets then all lathered up is abortion, and she will work that

The only reason she would sign on is to get ahead of a crowded primary field

We will see.

[Raine]

52. TOTALLY Disagree

he's the type who never quits.

[bluedigger]

53. Well, he can't quit to spend more time with his family.

[Paladin]

54. trump won't quit. He's incapable of doing something that decent and sane.

Anybody who thinks otherwise hasn't been paying attention to the downward spiral of his first term. Nothing ever gets better.

[FM123]

55. I have no idea what trump will do, but I am loving reading all your guesses.

Popcorn!

[DenverJared]

56. He was down in 2016 until Comey struck

and he still stayed in.

The only reason he may drop out is if Pence promises to pardon him and his cabal.

[WhiskeyWulf]

58. It's plausible.

A narcissist will do whatever has the lowest potential for humiliation. Losing the election would be humiliating, so he'll run as long as he is deluded (or assured by Russia) that he can win. If he comes to believe he will lose, he will convince himself that he is being persecuted and that America doesn't deserve his awesomeness, and he will resign before the election, complete with a Twitter rant about how he is unappreciated and he is going to punish us all by quitting.

[Andy823]

59. He will stay in the race

he won't step down. When Biden wins he will complain big time about a rigged system against him, even if the numbers for Biden winning are huge.

After the election is when he could actually cut and run to another country. I am pretty sure he has been stashing money away from all the different cons he has pulled since the election. Kickbacks, bribes, weapons deals for cash in his pocket, and all kinds of other cons.

Jus my two cents worth.

[Alex4Martinez]

60. the party forces him out, puts Pence in, and we remain royally fucked.

We should be ready for something like this.

Get out and vote, fight, it's all we can do, but I agree that even if the party doesn't do it, I'll bet Trump is tired of this game and wants to go on to some new stupid endeavor.

That's all this ever was to him, a new challenge.

[mucifer]

62. Deplorables would freak out. they worship him. they don't want mainstream

"deep state" republican politicians.

[Alex4Martinez]

64. I really do think the Donald will walk away from this just before or just after November.

In the latter case, we hope it will be to make room for Joe Biden.

In the former case, he should want to leave his mess for the next resident of the whitehouse.

[GulfCoast66]

63. It would destroy the Republican Party for 4 years.

A quarter of his voters, if not more would sit it out because trump is all they are about.

The convention would be a blood bath. Perhaps literally.

[sakabatou]

65. Trump will run. His want for power will do it.

[brooklynite]

68. NO, they aren't

They are saying it's POSSIBLE that he'll decide to drop out. Let's not pad the rumors.

[backscatter712]

71. Trump's a true coward - I can see him bailing.

Probably at the strategically worst moment for him, because he's also a stubborn narcissist and an idiot, but he's absolutely a coward. So the decision will probably be last-minute.

If it happens, it'll happen suddenly - concerned mumblings about his health from anonymous sources, then suddenly Trump declares he had a heart-attack/stroke and needs to step aside.

Shortly after that, there will be a mystery charter flight from DC to Moscow...