Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19

[Nevilledog]

A simple mathematical mistake may explain why many people underestimate the dangers of coronavirus, shunning social distancing, masks and hand-washing.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19

Imagine you are offered a deal with your bank, where your money doubles every three days. If you invest just $1 today, roughly how long will it take for you to become a millionaire?

Would it be a year? Six months? 100 days?

The precise answer is 60 days from your initial investment, when your balance would be exactly $1,048,576. Within a further 30 days, you’d have earnt more than a billion. And by the end of the year, you’d have more than $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 – an “undecillion” dollars.

If your estimates were way out, you are not alone. Many people consistently underestimate how fast the value increases – a mistake known as the “exponential growth bias” – and while it may seem abstract, it may have had profound consequences for people’s behaviour this year.

A spate of studies has shown that people who are susceptible to the exponential growth bias are less concerned about Covid-19’s spread, and less likely to endorse measures like social distancing, hand washing or mask wearing. In other words, this simple mathematical error could be costing lives – meaning that the correction of the bias should be a priority as we attempt to flatten curves and avoid second waves of the pandemic around the world.

*snip*

[empedocles]

1. Such an interesting explanation

[SheltieLover]

2. K&R!

Mind boggling! Ty for sharing!

[Nevilledog]

3. ...

[SheltieLover]

4. Well I'm pretty sure the Sturgis crowd

Doesn't get this.

[karynnj]

5. Also, it is why early effective action makes a HUGE difference

Graphs showed the expected change in cases and deaths of effective intervention. A difference of a week led to vastly different numbers.

Given that we are best to assume it is everywhere now, it will be harder to get control and then be able to handle future outbreaks quickly.