Charlie Cook Doesn't Agree With Most Analysts, Pollsters & Pundits

[Me.]

‘As Joe Biden was preparing to give his presidential nomination acceptance speech Thursday night, for me like so many others it was a time to reflect on where the race stands. I was thinking about the the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” which many have cited in writings and cartoons criticizing President Trump. Each has put a slightly different contemporary spin on the 1837 story, in which a pair of swindlers convince a vain king that they could weave fabulous clothes for him with a magic fabric that could not be seen by anyone who was stupid or incompetent. The king commissioned the faux-tailors to make him a suit of clothes, checking on their work, watching the pair at their looms as they pretended to weave, not letting on that he could not see the fabric, lest people think him a fool. Once presented with the “clothes,” he strutted through the streets wearing nothing, no one letting on that they, too, could not see the clothes. Finally, a young boy cries out, “But he has nothing on!”

I think about the story in the context of this election, but not in a way that compares Trump to the king. Rather, I think about it in terms of the political analysts, pollsters, and pundits who refuse to state publicly what the data plainly show: that it is very, very unlikely Trump will win 270 electoral votes and the election.”

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race


The Resource Trap
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/resource-trap

Approve or Not, Trump Is Setting Unfavorable Downballot Conditions
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/approve-or-not-trump-setting-unfavorable-downballot-conditions

[LizBeth]

1. This is the 2nd one of these I have heard. I have heard enough of the be afraid group as I

see polls showing a Biden win and being told not really, much closer, Trump in for the win. So, I really appreciate you posting this. It is how I see it.

[Me.]

4. I Believe Cook To Be Correct

Not only because IT is a nightmare but because the Dems ARE working on winning. I would caution about letting the guard down but at the same time encouragement will reap additional benefits.

[LizBeth]

17. I do not think any of us is going to take it for granted with the criminal/cheating Trump.

[Mike Nelson]

2. The Media...

... always wants a close race. There are more viewers and dollars, then...

[Me.]

5. That Is So True

[DrToast]

3. One thing I like about Cook...

He does a really good job of reporting what the numbers are showing, without letting his analysis be influenced by what he wants to happen. So this is pretty good news.

[elleng]

6. Good to see, but there's always putin.

[Me.]

9. THere Is

But Is he better, stronger, smarter than us? Are we going to let that mongrel monster beat us with our own fear?

[elleng]

10. tramp IS going to help him try to beat us.

He's damn smart, and thorough.

[Me.]

13. Of Course He Will

THey'll be as dirty as they can so shall we throw in the towel?

[Me.]

22. HOw About POsitive Axtion?

https://votefwd.org/?fbclid=IwAR3f7AUPnPVNhBbZIASI6enAhOiOUVJ4rz8wWVLQOfWylNXt9vZ-5-Sp62c

I did this sort of thing for Kerry, though it was postcards, and I will start doing this soon.

[SharonClark]

7. I hope Cook is right and Trump takes the down ballot

Repugs with him.

[still_one]

8. What Charlie Cook points out is that those who voted third party or didn't vote in 2016, most will

be voting for Biden, and that can make the difference

I would argue that there are also a small but significant number of republicans who have publicly endorsed and said they would be voting for Biden also

As long as we register people to vote, get the vote out, encourage voting early, and voting by mail if possible, the odds favor us

The 47% that didn't vote in 2016, will be voting in 2020

[Thekaspervote]

11. Cook got praise as well from Rachael Bitecofer for saying the race is not even close!!

Two I certainly have a lot of respect for!!

[Me.]

12. I Did Not Know That

It's an extra boost...

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Rachel Bitecofer somehow believes nobody changes their mind

That elections are all about turnout. It is palpably ridiculous. Hillary lost because swing voters did change their minds. The fact that there were huge number of late undecideds in 2016, compared to very few in 2012, and an in-between number this year serves in itself to discredit Rachel Bitecofer's chief thesis. Comey altered history in 2016 because he impacted preference, not turnout.

Anyway, Biden is in very good shape but the mistake Charlie Cook and others have made is assuming Trump cannot make up ground in significant categories from 2016. That is blatantly wrong. I posted years ago that Trump would fare better than expected with Hispanics in 2020, simply because Hispanics always have strange loyalty to a presidential incumbent. Trump also figures to make up ground with ideological partisans. He got only 81% of the conservative vote in 2016, losing 5% to Gary Johnson in one state after another. In fact, the reason Trump won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is that he did not suffer nearly as much crossover loss in those states. Trump managed 85% in those two states. If it had been the national number of 81% or even as low as 83% he would have lost both states.

We have to expect Trump will receive at least the 84-85% range nationally this year among conservatives. That's why all the anecdotal stuff means nothing regarding certain Republicans endorsing Biden. We may have heard those names but the overall trend is going to be the other way.

Swing independents will decide this election. That is the type of voter Rachel Bitecofer tries to pretend does not exist. Meanwhile, Independents went for Trump by 4% in 2016 then favored Democrats by 12% in the 2018 midterm. Independents moved away from Trump early in 2017 and have remained in our camp by roughly 10% margin. It really is the only category that means anything. If Biden retains a healthy edge among independents he'll be fine. If not we're on the way to fascism. Turnout means squat compared to preference among independents.

[Miigwech]

14. I really hope so.

[bdjhawk]

15. He is on the James Carville War Room podcast from last week

It was really good- was done after both conventions so offers that perspective. And I think Carville is always interesting. Cook does think Biden will win. Carville does too.

[Tones2345]

16. The truth is...

Barring extreme suppression tactics (which are definitely possible and in motion), Biden could surpass 400 EVs. Yeah, I said it. Texas, North Carolina, even Arkansas and Missouri are really in play when you dig into polling data. Trump is doing ad buys in Wyoming and Idaho! Why? He won them by more than 20% in 2016.

It’s in the best interest of pollsters and media to keep this race close. Still, Trump has a 50% problem. Joe is regularly over 50%, And in reality, the hardcore base Trump is pandering to is 30% of the country at most. Biden has everything to gain, and Trump has everything to lose, and he’s losing it quickly.

That said, let’s not forget, Trump is a media creation. He stood no chance of winning the 2016 primary until MSM gave him a voice leading up to Iowa. It was a joke to them and they love promoting a train wreck. It backfired bigly then, but I don’t think they’ll let it happen again (this time). Semi-responsible outlets see the consequences of a Trump second term.

[Patterson]

20. Arkansas is not in play. Trust me

[andym]

18. FYI, He declared the race in 2016 over on October 14

So, he may be correct, but no one can be sure until the election is over and the votes are counted.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/301082-respected-election-handicapper-calls-election-for-hillary

"One of the most respected election handicappers in the country says the presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is now “over,” with victory assured for Clinton, the Democratic nominee.

“Take a close look at the new Fox News poll,” tweeted Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.

“This race is OVER.”...

[grantcart]

19. Actually he does agree with most.

The Economist model shows 80% Biden and 538 is down a little to 67%.

The polls get a lot of cheap criticism and it's surprising how close they are.

Because the electoral college was an upset last time I believe that the pills are being generally over cautious in one respect: using turnout models from 2016. I think that if they used the turnout of GOP from 2016 but the Dems from 2018 the margins would be larger and closer to what is happening.

[aquamarina]

23. I will not breath a sigh

of relief until 12:01 p.m. on January 20, 2021. Until Trump is actually gone and Biden sworn in, Trump is a danger to all of us.

[Snackshack]

24. 2016

Tossed everything upside down / inside out for political analysts, pundits etc. HRC had 90%+ to win across board and technically they were right she did win popular vote but DT managed to win electorally so all of these folk are now skittish to say what looks obvious. Plus there is also the new phenomenon of DT and his goons going after anyone who says it because DT can’t have that said. If the election is fair DT loses. If voters turn out in historic numbers (IMO our only hope of winning) rDT loses. If the vote margin is less then double digits DT wins no matter who voted for who. DT will challenge the tally, claim it is rigged, take it to court, force a recount whatever he can do. The only way DT can do this is if we think the race is close and that operation has already started.

[pansypoo53219]

26. the media wanted a RACE so they made it so. RATINGS.

[pansypoo53219]

25. the MEdia wants a CLOSER race FOR RATINGS. fuck democracy. they want RATINGS!