Poll shows 7-point swing for Joe Biden in Tampa market after $1.7 million EDF ad buy

[RandySF]

A new poll from ALG Research for the Environmental Defense Action Fund shows a 7-point swing for Joe Biden in the Tampa media market after the launch of a $1.7 million EDF television campaign directed at Tampa Bay voters.

Before the ad campaign, polling from AGL Research had shown President Donald Trump leading in the critical market. That poll, released July 6, showed a competitive margin between the two candidates — at the time, Biden trailed by just 3 points in the Tampa market. However, the July poll showed Biden with a 15-point lead in Hillsborough County. Biden also held a 5-point lead in Pinellas County.

After the run of the ad, which criticizes Trump’s leadership on environmental issues and his declarations that climate change is “a hoax,” Trump now trails Biden by 4 points in the Tampa market, according to polling released last Wednesday.

“Florida is the most valuable swing state and the Tampa area is an essential piece of the electoral puzzle,” Vice President of ALG Research Kevin Atkins said in a news release. “Tampa area voters have felt the impacts of sea-level rise, stronger storms, and issues like Red Tide. It’s no surprise these voters are souring on a President who calls climate change a hoax.”

Trump won this market by roughly 8.5 points in 2016, according to the memo, although Hillary Clinton took Hillsborough County.



https://floridapolitics.com/archives/363961-poll-shows-7-point-swing-for-joe-biden-in-tampa-market-following-1-7-million-edf-ad-buy

[sfstaxprep]

1. Losing FL Puts Drumpf On Life Support

His path to 270 becomes near impossible without FL. Would love to see the polls move outside the margin of error.

[Tribetime]

7. On life support during a power outage

[johnnyrocket]

13. Agreed, FL is a very good strategic win.

The icing would be TX, but probably a long shot.

[Cha]

2. Kickeroo!

[SunSeeker]

3. Advertising pays!

[lagomorph777]

16. Laser-focused advertising pays!

Climate change is in-your-face in Florida. We need to do it this way everywhere: look at what is directly affecting voters in a region and hit Trump on that issue. Since Trump is wrong on every single issue, and people are suffering everywhere from his malfeasance, there is something to hit him on, everywhere you go.

[jorgevlorgan]

4. They need to keep it up

This shows our money is being put to some good use, but we can't let up.

[Princess Turandot]

5. Here's the ad...

[Wounded Bear]

6. Good news, but a lot of time left...nt

[lagomorph777]

17. Not really. I vote in two weeks, and my state is not the earliest.

[Wounded Bear]

19. We don't get our ballots for a few weeks yet...

usually they're pretty good about it, but I do plan to fill out and submit early as possible.

Candidates, I'm set on. There may be some state initiatives and local races I'm still not sure of.

It will get done, though. Not a good year to sit out.

[BlueWavePsych]

8. Glad to see there was good response to climate change ad.

Great work
A Covid-19 related ad could boost the lead.

[lagomorph777]

18. It makes sense to carefully target by region. COVID-19 is an emerging problem in many regions.

Other issues might dominate in some regions. For example, Trump's effort to destroy Social Security will hit hard in regions with high retiree or near-retiree populations.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. People are open-minded enough IF you can deliver a message of hope on these issues

Let's hop to it!

[BGBD]

10. Florida will

have votes counted on election night. If Biden is wins Florida his chances at winning the election skyrocket. If Florida is called for Biden, you might not be able to pop the corks yet, but you can certainly get it out of the fridge and get the glasses out.

[grantcart]

11. If Trump loses Florida he has no credible path to win the electoral college

Especially since he is going to lose AZ

[BGBD]

12. He could win if he

lost Forida, but he'd have to essentially run the table. He could only lose Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Carolina, OR Michigan. If he lost any combination of those states or a single larger state like PA, he would be officially done.

The reason he would be unlikely to win is that if Biden wins Florida it is a sign that he is outperforming Clinton and Trump probably wouldn't be able to sneak out razor thin wins everywhere like he did in 2016.

[bucolic_frolic]

14. Also an indication that Trump support is soft, a last minute Biden push could yield a waterfall

People need to be reminded of how Trump's policies have impacted their lives, health, well-being

[Zorro]

15. I'm currently in the local Tampa market

Lots of Biden/Harris ads on the tube, and I think they're quite effective (talking about Trump's nonexistent leadership fighting coronavirus, how Trump is going to screw seniors out of their SS, etc). Hardly any Trump ads until a day or so ago, and the ones I've seen are screeching about the "liberal antifa leftists" that will destroy the USA if Biden gets elected.

Also seeing more big Trump/Pence signs along the road, although there is one home along a relatively busy road that's flying BLM, Biden/Harris, and a couple of other flags in their yard.

Was behind a truck with a "Trump/Pence: No more bullshit" bumper sticker, but it was about the size of a 3x5 card.

I think Pinellas and Hillsborough counties will be blue this election. Further out the gun humpers hold sway.

[lagomorph777]

20. "Trump/Pence: No more bullshit" - seen that one; figured it was a request to Trump/Pence.

A request which, sadly, has been ignored.