Monmouth Pennsylvania Poll Shows Biden Up By 4

[liskddksil]

Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Among likely voters, the race is a tight 1 to 3 points, depending on the expected turnout level. This shift from Biden’s larger lead just over six weeks ago is due to declining support for the challenger among men, voters under age 50, and voters in key swing counties. The generic House ballot also remains close, while Democrats are in a generally better position in a trio of contests for statewide offices. The poll also finds that a small, but important, portion of the electorate agrees with the Republican message that the American suburbs are under threat.

Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for president stands at 49% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 2% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, less than 1% back the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins, and 4% are undecided. Voter intent includes 43% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 44% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 40% who are certain to support Trump (versus 47% who are not at all likely).

The contest tightens when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a somewhat higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 49% for Biden and 46% for Trump, while one reflecting lower turnout has it at 48% for Biden and 47% for Trump.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_090220/

[Laelth]

1. That's disappointing. n/t

-Laelth

[tman]

2. The 2012 margin. I'll take it. There's no time to be disappointed.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. It's not 2012 margin, tho.

Obama essentially won PA by 5, which sure the RV model is close to - but the LV model is showing the race between a 1-3 point margin. That's scary close.

[Calista241]

4. And we all know there are a lot of trump supporters that won't cop to being a trump supporter.

I'm scared.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Not a good result for Biden. Glad he leads but there's enough evidence that PA is tightening.

That's concerning with how much Biden has played up his hometown roots. They don't seem to be really helping him here.

The concern has to be that PA is dangerously close to being lost again if the polling shifts even marginally in Trump's favor between now and election day.

This is also a significant drop from their last poll, which had Biden up 10.

[tman]

6. I take your point but it's one poll mid RNC bounce.

Before the panic, let's see some more numbers.

It might be trumps high watermark.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It's similar to more recent polls.

CNBC had it a three-point race last week and Morning Call had it at 4 right before the convention. The only outlier is a seven-point lead from F&M.

Pretty clear the consensus has Biden up only 3-4 points.

[MyOwnPeace]

10. Sept. 29 will put it away for Joe.......

The 1st debate!

Joe's gonna' kick A$$!!!!!!

[Polybius]

8. The article says among likely voters it's down to 3 points

How accurate is Monmouth?

[Drunken Irishman]

11. 538 rates them an A+.

[Polybius]

12. Thank you

So I guess it really is accurate. What has happened to PA? It really has moved to the right. Since Virginia has moved to the left, I wonder if many of PA's liberals have moved to Virginia.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Yes, unfortunately. Here's my take...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213977340

If you care what I think lol

[Polybius]

14. I'm always interested in your posts

You are a very honest member. I actually prefer brutal honestly better than false confidence.

[ibegurpard]

16. Stoking working class lesser educated white resentment

Xenophobia, racism, and fear has been key to the rise of fascist power worldwide. It was behind Brexit and Trump and the former Soviet satellites that have gone full fascist. I don't know how to counter this.

[WhiteTara]

9. Did this scare you?

Register some more voters where ever you live. Carry forms all the time and hand them out to who ever isn't registered. Take it to the county clerk's office to make sure it gets there in time.

[Roland99]

15. That's in-line with the CNBC/Change Research poll from last week

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

[mvd]

17. Looking at the PA polls going way back..

Only one has ever had Trump ahead, and that was in May. So I am pretty confident. Have also had a couple good national polls after their sham of a convention.

[BlueWavePsych]

18. Looks like a return to the mean reflecting RNC bounce.

Biden's lead could widen shortly after his visit to Pittsburg.

[wcast]

19. As someone who lives in rural PA, this is accurate.

Turnout is key. People who are not Trumpbots know Trump is a racist and knows he looks and sounds ridiculous, but are still looking for an excuse to vote for him

My boss came out and said Trump is a racist but he still agrees with some of his views. He is looking at vice presidents as a reason to still vote Trump.

[Yavin4]

20. If the Dems turnout to vote, Joe wins PA. That's what the poll is telling you.

Using the LV model means they're counting folks who vote in primaries or local elections. The voters that we need to turnout don't vote as frequently as the voters in this sample.

Be encouraged by the poll. Get the vote out.

[farmbo]

21. Remember...the RNC lie-fest last week said Biden would "ban fracking", a major PA jobs source

(Before dropping out, Kamala had run on a platform favoring the banning fracking in PA and elsewhere).

Joe used his Monday speech (from Pittsburgh) to vehemently state that his administration would NOT ban fracking.

This poll will be Trump's high water mark in PA, where he will lose.