General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe stock market thinks Joe Biden is going to beat Donald Trump
New York (CNN Business)The presidential election is only two months away and the stock market is soaring.
In theory, that should bode well for President Trump since a bull market has historically benefited the incumbent. But Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden in many head-to-head national polls.
Although the market's sharp rebound since March could be viewed as a sign that investors expect the coronavirus-induced recession to be brief, you need to dig deeper and look at how the recovery is unfolding.
It turns out a basket of stocks that could fare well in a Biden presidency have been outperforming the overall market as well as a portfolio of stocks that might benefit from a second Trump term.
Blue stocks vs red
According to data from Strategas that was shared with CNN Business, a group of infrastructure, renewable energy, pro-globalization, health care and cannabis stocks are up more than 10% since early June.
This so-called Biden or blue list includes companies like Granite Construction (GVA), Tesla (TSLA), First Solar (FSLR), chip giant Broadcom (AVGO) and the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), which owns several top German stocks.
The bet is that these companies might thrive if Biden wins and pushes for the United States to rebuild highways and bridges, wean America off oil and restore fractured trade relations with China, Japan, Europe and other global economic leaders.
Republicans are good for tax cuts to help "job creators". Democrats are good for creating actual jobs. Hoping enough voters in enough economically disadvantaged swing states have wised up to this by now.
MissB
(15,807 posts)Spouse wants to pull some out. Meets the minimum age requirement. He wants to pull out the gains since March.
The remaining is enough to retire on at the end of the year if he wanted to (isnt quite ready to).
Im calculating the taxes before he does it. I get it- he wants to pay off the mortgage and have more cash on hand each month.
Sigh.
IronLionZion
(45,433 posts)America has been in recession before the COVID lockdowns started so I expect a market correction this fall, maybe around election time. Hopefully we'll have the Senate also to help implement Biden's reforms and then things will come back up as more Americans get back to work and trickle up.
MissB
(15,807 posts)Before the market correction.
It just goes against everything I know.
dubyadiprecession
(5,708 posts)Trump watches the market.
That could give him the stress he needs for that final stroke!
Johnny2X2X
(19,060 posts)Not because there's a 50-50 chance of either guy winning, but because betters think Trump will steal it.