Trump May Have Gotten A Convention Bounce. But It's Very Slight And May Already Be Fading.

[Klaralven]

We’ve now seen an array of new national polls conducted in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention, and collectively they show nothing major has shifted in the race between President Trump and Joe Biden. Trump may have enjoyed a very slight convention bounce, but one that represents only a small boost compared to where the race stood before the party conventions — and even that small bounce is showing some signs of fading.

FiveThirtyEight’s general election forecast tells the tale. On Aug. 16, the Sunday before the Democratic convention, Trump had a 28 in 100 shot at winning. A little over a week later, as the GOP convention was taking place, Trump’s chances ticked up to 32 in 100, as there wasn’t much evidence of Biden getting any post-DNC bounce. And as of the afternoon of Wednesday, Sept. 2, Trump has a 30 in 100 chance. All in all, there’s been only a very small shift in Trump’s direction.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-have-gotten-a-convention-bounce-but-its-very-slight-and-may-already-be-fading/

[Thekaspervote]

1. Or.. as another expert puts it

Link to tweet

?s=21

[paleotn]

4. Interesting thing is....

how relatively flat the blue and red lines are.

[Thekaspervote]

5. Indeed, the poll aggregator for The Economist says this is one of the most stable races he's seen

EVER!!

[dchill]

2. Inverted bounce. A dip. Biden's margin increased in other polls.

[paleotn]

3. There were really no traditional convention bounces on either side...

Not like we've seen in years past. Biden's was bigger, but I think most minds have been made up on this since 2018. Donnie has been stuck at 40% or worse approval since 2017 and won't budge. And he refuses to do anything that might remotely look like moving towards the center to improve his chances. I think he's incapable of it. He's incapable of a lot of things.

[Thekaspervote]

6. As for Biden, 2 things when you're already polling above 50% there's very little room to move up

2. The number of undecideds is extremely low this election