U.S. coronavirus deaths projected to more than double to 410,000 by January

[Nevilledog]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/u-s-coronavirus-deaths-projected-to-more-than-double-to-410000-by-january-idUSKBN25V2A7

(Reuters) - U.S. deaths from the coronavirus will reach 410,000 by the end of the year, more than double the current death toll, and deaths could soar to 3,000 per day in December, the University of Washington’s health institute forecast on Friday.

Deaths could be reduced by 30% if more Americans wore face masks as epidemiologists have advised, but mask-wearing is declining, the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said.

The U.S. death rate projected by the IHME model, which has been cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, would more than triple the current death rate of some 850 per day.

“We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December,” the institute, which bills itself as an independent research center, said in an update of its periodic forecasts.

*snip*

[LizBeth]

1. So the real number will be over half a million.

[guillaumeb]

2. So COVID19 will not magically disappear very soon? eom

[tanyev]

3. The restaurant we got take out from today was hopping with in person customers.

Much busier than the last time we went there a few weeks ago. I guess that’s good for the restaurant, but it made me nervous. They all had masks on as they arrived (mask mandate in TX), but then you’re allowed to remove them to eat your food. There’s no way I would do that yet.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. I suspect the IMHE model is wrong again.

They previously greatly-underestimated the deaths, but lately the model has been overestimating.

Hope so! Time will tell!

This model has a better track record so far:
https://covid19-projections.com