The 2018 Democratic coalition is still intact
We have been seeing a lot of articles about the state of the race between Biden and Dumbass today. Labor day is when polls really start to become historically accurate. And what I have seen a lot of these state of the race analysis is how steady Bidens lead over the demented fat ass is. What I don't know why this is much of a surprise. I think the obvious answer, which has been obvious since summer 2019, it that the coalition that win the Dems the House in 2018 is still intact. That is why Biden has been doing so consistently well for so long. In 2018, the Dems won the overall house popular vote by about 8.5 points. That is the only nationwide election we have had since 2016 and it looks pretty much like the lead Biden has had for the last year and a half, over Trump. Harry Enten pointed out today that Bidens lead has essentially been the same with only minor variations for 500 days in a row. That's because the 2018 coalition never went away. And that is also why the Dems wanted Biden this year. Like I 2018, moderate, low drama Democrats won the day. That is pretty much the definition of Biden.
And that is also why I don't think the polls are going to change or Trump is going to close the gap in the final 2 months. Americans decided years ago who they were going to support in 2020. As long as the Dems went with a safe choice, this was always going to be a Dem +8ish election.