Fox News National poll

[Proud liberal 80]

I think that this is a great poll for Biden, but looking at the comments you would think that Trump is ahead. The Dems are freaking out and the Trumpers are happy.

Link to tweet

[still_one]

1. I think the reason for that is because the polls have tightened up. However, in that poll there are

more Democrats registered to vote than republicans, and more Democrats interested in the presidential election than republicans.

The enthusiasm according to this poll for a particular candidate is more for trump than Biden, however, I don't see then asking the enthusiasm that trump removed in that poll

This is a national poll, and everyone knows this election is going to be decided by a hand full of swing states because of the electoral college.

If this was any other time, the explosive Woodward book and recordings of trump in his own words would have sunk anyone else's candidacy, and the fact that he is still viable is very concerning, along with the fact that at least 40% of his supporters are either racists, or have no problem having a racist, sexist, and bigot as president.

The poll also seems to indicate that there are still a significant number of people who are not registered to vote, and that is where we have to put all our efforts, along with early voting and voting by mail if possible

[Iliyah]

2. Years ago I came to the . . .

conclusion that anything coming from fake news (Murdoch) should never be trusted, no matter if it is good or bad.

[Polybius]

5. Their polling has always been honest

In fact, on the morning of the special election, they were the only ones that had Roy Moore losing. They are not like Rasmussen.

[BannonsLiver]

3. I can always tell it's not a great number when people don't post it in the subject line

Nothing to do with your post, just something that occurred to me.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. It's not a particularly strong poll for Biden. It's his worst from FOX News in months.

If I'm Trump, I'd be elated to he only down five in one of the better respected national polls (538 rates them an A) after the week he's had. It's his best poll from them in quite a while.

Here's their previous polls:

Aug: Biden 49-42 (+7)
July: Biden 49-41 (+8)
June: Biden 50-38 (+12)
May: Biden 48-40 (+8)
April: Biden 42-42 (-)
March: Biden 49-40 (+9)
Feb: Biden 49-41 (+8)
Jan: Biden 50-41 (+9)

So, this is his second worst poll of the year from FOX. Here's hoping it's an anomaly like April but it's concerning that Trump's support jumped by 5-6 points from where it's been all year and Biden only saw a very marginal increase to counter. It's good Biden is above 50% but not so good that, in this poll, he's barely grown any new support since January. That means just a marginal shift in the other direction could put Trump ahead.

[Polybius]

6. April's tie must have been when Trump briefly had like 55% supporting his Covid response

No other explanation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. If you look at the crosstabs Biden is +6 in the Battleground States

That being said it's just a data point.

[nsd]

8. There's not much room for Biden to grow.

The electorate is so polarized that that it might be impossible for *any* candidate to get as much as 55%. Obama in 2008 (a stellar candidate in a stellar year) only managed 53%. In fact, no candidate since Reagan in 1984 has even hit 54%.

So I'm not bothered by Biden's 51%, especially given the margin of error of this (or any) poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Disagree.

I don't think there's room for significant growth, but all year Trump was polling in the low 40s head-to-head with Biden. That meant a few of those voters were up for grabs and Biden, at best, got like 2% of them, while Trump got 5% after one of the most negative weeks for coverage for him.

Again, it's good Biden is above 50% but in their last poll where Biden was 50%, there was 12% undecided or third party. Since that poll, Biden has theoretically pulled in just +1 of that support and Trump has pulled in +8.

My concern if I'm the Biden campaign is that his ceiling in this poll, despite all that has gone on, seems to be 50-51%. That's not necessarily bad but it's not great, either. Why? Because, again, he's not growing much support. We also know Biden can dip in this poll, too, as he's hit at 48% and 49% three times since that low in April. So, any shift back to that changes the dynamics of the race. And frankly, Biden needs to win the popular vote by at least three-plus points for me to be comfortable with his chances in the EC.

But yeah. With Trump polling in the low 40s throughout the entire year, I was hopeful Biden could peel some of those undecided/third party votes away to expand his national lead to, say, 53-43, which would be extremely strong.

But at 51-46, with Trump showing signs yet again of winning over the undecideds (he did in 2016 too) if that trend continues and say he picks up two more points of the three-percent undecided/third party, then the race is now 51-48... well within the MOE and not large enough to feel any level of confidence in the EC ... and that's if Biden doesn't lose any support.

To be sure, Biden is still positioned well. But not as well positioned as the last four months. Let's hope it doesn't worsen over the next two.