FL-HD60: Democrat leads incumbent by six points in potential bellwether matchup (Trump effect)
Signaling a tight race and a potential upset, Democrat Julie Jenkins leads incumbent Republican Rep. Jackie Toledo by six points in a new poll.
A St. Pete Polls survey among 466 likely HD 60 voters showed Jenkins leading outside the margin of error 48% to 42% with 10% undecided.
It’s a remarkable shift in a district Toledo won in 2018 by four points and in 2016 by 14 points and where Republicans carry 37% of registered voters compared to just 33.5% for Democrats.
The poll suggests what Democrats have been hoping — that President Donald Trump would negatively affect down-ballot races — is happening.
Trump narrowly claimed the district over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by less than a point, but is far behind former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest poll by seven points, with Biden claiming 51% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. Only 3% of voters are undecided in the district while only 1% plan to vote third party.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/367160-julie-jenkins-leads-jackie-toledo-six-points-in-potential-bellwether-hd-60-matchup