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'It's a really weird dynamic': Breaking down Trump's reelection map
PoliticoFour years ago, Trump’s prospective map appeared much narrower at this point in the campaign. Exactly half of his general election campaign events were held in just four states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
“We looked at basically six states in 2016 that were in play, and we didn’t know about three of them,” said Whit Ayres, the longtime Republican pollster. “You have double that this year. You have at least a dozen states that could legitimately go either way.”
Much of the map’s fluidity is a function of Trump’s weak standing nationally — forcing Republicans to adopt a defensive posture in states that Trump won easily in 2016. He dispatched Vice President Mike Pence to Ohio on Wednesday, while Preserve America, the pro-Trump PAC, has been airing ads in Iowa this month. Republicans have spent nearly $6 million on TV ads since June in Georgia, a state no Republican has lost since 1992.
But because of Trump’s relatively unshakable level of support with his base, he remains in the hunt in several blue states that were not widely thought to be within his grasp this year, including New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada. Uncertainty about the pandemic’s effect on voting and ongoing legal challenges surrounding mail voting have muddied turnout models across the country. What’s more, Republicans — and many Democrats — believe that if Trump can stay within striking distance of Biden by making small investments in many states, rather than big investments in a small number of states, he could benefit in any number of places from a shift in the national arc of the race.
“We looked at basically six states in 2016 that were in play, and we didn’t know about three of them,” said Whit Ayres, the longtime Republican pollster. “You have double that this year. You have at least a dozen states that could legitimately go either way.”
Much of the map’s fluidity is a function of Trump’s weak standing nationally — forcing Republicans to adopt a defensive posture in states that Trump won easily in 2016. He dispatched Vice President Mike Pence to Ohio on Wednesday, while Preserve America, the pro-Trump PAC, has been airing ads in Iowa this month. Republicans have spent nearly $6 million on TV ads since June in Georgia, a state no Republican has lost since 1992.
But because of Trump’s relatively unshakable level of support with his base, he remains in the hunt in several blue states that were not widely thought to be within his grasp this year, including New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada. Uncertainty about the pandemic’s effect on voting and ongoing legal challenges surrounding mail voting have muddied turnout models across the country. What’s more, Republicans — and many Democrats — believe that if Trump can stay within striking distance of Biden by making small investments in many states, rather than big investments in a small number of states, he could benefit in any number of places from a shift in the national arc of the race.
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