Forget Trump's carnival. The election is all about Biden now.

[brooklynite]

Washington Post

A majority of Americans have seen enough of Trump to make up their minds about him, and nothing he says between now and Election Day will change that. On the question of whether he deserves to be rehired, the collective answer is no.

And so now, with less than seven weeks left, we’re firmly in the second phase of the campaign. The only real question is whether Biden represents a comfortable alternative for a lot of voters who just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the Democratic nominee last time around.

So far, so good for Biden. His answer to Trump’s law-and-order onslaught at the convention — “Do I look like a radical socialist with a soft spot for rioters?” — was exactly right. He’s locking up majorities in the states he ought to win (like Minnesota) while remaining competitive in states where he ought to have no chance (like Texas).

But his last crucial test is coming. A lot of voters didn’t pay close attention to the Democratic primaries, and because of the pandemic, they haven’t had an extended look at Biden. His campaign seemed just fine with lying low while the president unraveled.

Starting Sept. 29, voters are about to see Biden up close, sharing a stage with Trump, three times in about a three-week span.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I hope not. What lost Hillary the election in 2016 is that it became all about her...

She dominated the final week of the election and lost because of it. Trump has been at his worst polling wise when the focus is on him during this election cycle.

If this becomes a referendum on Biden, I think we lose. That's how incumbents win reelection. They make the race about the challenger.

In 2012, it was about Romney being out of touch. What could have been an election about Obama turned into one about whether Romney had the understanding of average Americans to help them out. A lot of voters decided he didn't.

In 2004, Bush made the election about Kerry's honesty. It was effective. People thought of him as a flip-flopper. 2004 could have been a referendum on Bush's handling of Iraq but it became one on whether Kerry had the leadership needed to guide the US through war.

In 1996, the election was essentially about Dole's age, the fact if he won, Republicans would control all factions of the government and tying him to Newt.

Those elections were essentially flipped as about the challenger as often, if not more often, than the incumbent.

In elections incumbents lose, it's always a referendum on their handling. It's always about them. No matter what Bush tried to do in 1992 to make the election about Clinton's draft record or honesty, the focus always remained on him. It was never an election about Clinton. Had it been, he likely loses.

2020 has to be about Trump. Or we likely lose.

[Indykatie]

2. Biden Isn't Hillary. Folks Taking A look at Biden Will Most Likely Like Him and His Life Story

As the article noted a majority of the country has already made up their minds to fire Trump. That's not like to change in 50 days especially him continuing to do and say batsh*t crazy things.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Biden isn't Hillary, I agree...

But this still can't be a referendum on the challenger. No challenger has ever won over an incumbent when the election has been about him. I don't see Biden changing that, especially with how divided the country is today.

Trump continues to be his own worst enemy. Biden staying under the radar is the perfect antidote to a Trump campaign because Trump continually sabotages his campaign. When the focus is on Biden, and not Trump, that allows for the campaign to normalize his idiocy just enough that it could fool some foolish voters into supporting him.

It's all a delicate act. When the story is Trump, he loses.

When the story is Biden, and Trump is sidelined, I don't see how anything good can come from that to be honest. That's not to say Biden should just hunker down in his basement - no - it just means the focus should be to attack Trump, call out his comments, his lack of leadership and hit him over the head with everything he's said and done until he's a blubbering idiot.