At this point, the focus should be on November and what scenario best helps Democrats...

[Drunken Irishman]

Because we've got an 82 year old justice on the Supreme Court currently who could also die between now and the end of a Trump term - plus everything everyone thinks needs to be done can only be done if the Democrats win back control of the Senate.

The battle isn't to stop this seat from being filled. It's going to be filled. There is nothing Democrats can do to stop it outside working like hell to get enough GOP senators to give a strong no - but does anyone really believe that's likely to happen? Of course not. Maybe one or two Republicans will have the backbone needed to stand up to McConnell.

Maybe.

So, that means our focus still is November 3rd. We've got to win this election. If we don't, it'll also mean we probably don't take back the senate and that'll be that.

With all that out there, what scenario helps the Democrats the most?

1. A delay until after the election - forcing a confirmation during the lame duck period?
- Optics wise, it would look terrible for the GOP senate, after, say, losing the senate, confirming a GOP president's pick, despite the fact he just lost reelection, during a lame duck session of congress. Of course, the GOP can care dick about optics and if they're now the minority party - they've got nothing to lose. Especially if people like Collins and Gardner are on their way out of office. Maybe even Graham. The thing is, one of the GOP's main argument right now for getting a justice approved is that we can't have a potential split court ruling on election issues during a contested election. That argument dies if they wait. They also will have to somewhat telegraph this move, as if they don't confirm between now and essentially election day, it'll be pretty clear this is their plan. They will have to concede they'll confirm after the election. That's not a good look for incumbent senators as they try to explain how they can justify the potential of confirming justices during a lame duck period when they may have already been voted out of office. That also raises questions with McSally's current seat. If Kelly wins, technically he can be seated in November. Technically only because the Republicans still control the swearing in. Of course, the Republicans can LIE and say they won't move on the nominee in the lame duck, dangle the nomination for their base (which could fire up Trump fence sitters), and if Trump wins, they can do it in January, no damage done - but if he loses, still push through the nominee during the lame duck period.

2. A vote before the election - forcing it as an election day issue?
- This could impact the presidential race. For those tepid Trump voters, maybe they don't feel as inclined to support Trump in November if the seat has already been filled. That's been their justification for supporting him all these years. With that out of the equation, maybe they stay home or vote third party. Conversely, it could fire up Democrats even more and they not only win the presidency, but expand their potential majority in the US senate - winning Arizona, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Colorado and South Carolina. That would absolutely give Biden a mandate to push through some pretty aggressive legislation (first thing firs: recognize Puerto Rico and DC as states). On the flip side, taking the Supreme Court issue, the need to fill RBG's seat, might discourage fence-sitting liberals who were only going to vote Biden to keep the seat. Now what's the point? Sure, you can point to just what I said: expanding the Senate majority, which will allow for a more aggressive agenda (maybe even an expansion of the courts) but will it be enough?

To be honest, I think option two is the best. I don't trust the GOP, even if they say they'll defer until after the election, won't push through a nominee in the lame duck period. I do think there could be potential voters who stay home if RBG's seat isn't the issue, and I think the blowback from ramming through the confirmation is going to fire up Democrats and turn off a lot of suburban women.

But there's one caveat: Trump is going to nominate a white woman to the Supreme Court. The optics have to be good for the Democrats. They cannot risk looking angry toward this woman because most people are not going to blame her for what is happening. There was a temporary backlash to Kavanaugh's hearing in the sense Trump actually saw an approval bump during the hearings. We can't risk that in 2020 with how close we are to the election. IF this goes to hearings before the election, the Democrats have to be professional and hold the hearings like they would if it were 2019. I know that goes against everything we think should be done but at that point, it's too late anyway and the last thing we want to do is turn off white suburban women who are poised to deliver the White House to the Democrats.

(all bets are off, tho, if Trump nominates another man)

[TwilightZone]

1. There is little reason to believe they're going to wait until after the election.

There's really no reason to, and Trump and McConnell have already stated that it's ASAP.

That doesn't seem to stop lots of people from speculating about it, however. I just don't see why they would bother. What would be the point of waiting?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Time for one. They're in session only 13 more days before they recess until after the election.

It will likely require an extension into the recess, which puts incumbents up for reelection at a disadvantage as they now are not able to head home to campaign for their own reelection. Lots of Republicans are in a tough fight.

Trump might also want it to be an election day issue - vote for me so we can appoint that seat! Fire up those voters who weren't quite sure they wanted to vote for him but were due to the RBG seat. Now that's filled, they may not turn out.

But I think you're right that option two will be their choice.

And I'm okay with that.

[TwilightZone]

3. McConnell has all the time he needs.

What else does he have to do? The guy has literally done nothing for 12 years. It's not like he has a lot on his plate.

The only thing Trump has accomplished his entire presidency is judicial appointments. He wants fodder for his legacy.

I just find the whole "Trump wants to wait" argument rather bizarre. There's literally no point to it.

"vote for me so we can appoint that seat"

He already has it. No one is going to decide to vote for him or stay home based on the timing. I don't know where that idea comes from either, but it's silly.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Nothing is silly.

Well except dismissing everything out of hand. In a close presidential election, votes matter. It actually is silly to suggest voters who may have only been inclined to vote Trump in November on the hopes of getting RBG's seat might not be persuaded to vote, at least in some amount of support, for him now that her seat isn't on the table.

Even if it only amounts to a few thousand voters in Florida - it may be enough to alter the entire election.

[leftwingbias]

5. The line of attack should go something like this:

The GOP have no problem rushing/pushing through a potential SC justice at the height of a hard fought presidential election to advance their ideas (chief among them repealing the ACA) instead of focusing on helping the American people affected by Covid.

Also highlight the fact that many of the same senators were against this same action 4 years ago when the country was in much better shape.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Pretty much.

[leftwingbias]

7. Make it seem like

they’re (the party of the orange Antichrist) are willing to move mountains to grab more power, while the average American is struggling.

It fits with the central theme of Joe’s campaign: a president for all Americans.

[Proud liberal 80]

8. I agree with you

#2 is the best option, they are getting the person anyway....might as well happen before the election which might make the Trump voter less motivated and the Biden voter madder....maybe third party voters will realize elections have consequences and they will choose Biden