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brooklynite

(94,858 posts)
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 02:50 PM Sep 2020

Quinnipiac Poll: Biden -5 Texas, +1 Ohio

In Texas and Ohio, two states where President Trump won easily in 2016, the president holds a slight lead in Texas and it’s too close to call in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters in both states. These are the first surveys from the Quinnipiac University Poll in both Texas and Ohio to use likely voters and results cannot be compared to prior surveys of registered voters.

“With six weeks to go until Election Day and most minds made up, Ohio could hinge on a sliver of likely voters who signal they may have a change of heart and the four percent who say they are unsure right now who they’ll back. At this point, it’s a toss-up,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

...snip...

In Ohio, 97 percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the presidential match up say their minds are made up, with 3 percent saying they might change their minds. In Texas, 94 percent say their minds are made up, with 5 percent saying their minds might change.

In Ohio, 46 percent of likely voters plan on voting in person on Election Day. Thirty-five percent plan on voting by mail/absentee ballot, and 16 percent plan on voting at an early voting location.
In Texas, 47 percent of likely voters plan on voting at an early voting location, 38 percent plan on voting in person, and 13 percent plan on voting by mail/absentee ballots.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh09242020_bgfx53.pdf

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Quinnipiac Poll: Biden -5 Texas, +1 Ohio (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2020 OP
A Biden win in Ohio fits my local observations! Buckeye_Democrat Sep 2020 #1
TX is fool's gold redstateblues Sep 2020 #2
Until it's not BannonsLiver Sep 2020 #12
Cant be too soon for me redstateblues Sep 2020 #18
Even if we don't win it Bettie Sep 2020 #17
Northern Ohio vs Southern Ohio. roamer65 Sep 2020 #3
It's still mostly urban vs rural like most places. Buckeye_Democrat Sep 2020 #8
Hopefully Toledo and Cleveland turn out in droves for Biden/Harris. roamer65 Sep 2020 #11
I hope so! Buckeye_Democrat Sep 2020 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author Sogo Sep 2020 #4
Why? brooklynite Sep 2020 #5
My bad.... Sogo Sep 2020 #10
TX is that fastball pitch just outside the strike zone. Yavin4 Sep 2020 #6
Except each time you swing you get closer and closer to he ball jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 #9
Meanwhile, you strike out again and again. n/t Yavin4 Sep 2020 #13
Unless our accuracy is 1 inch closer each time and now the ball is coming 1 inch away from the bat jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 #15
For instance, Democrats have been consistently overperforming the polls since 2016 jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 #16
He is still only ahead by 2 in 538 avg jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 #7

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,858 posts)
1. A Biden win in Ohio fits my local observations!
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 02:57 PM
Sep 2020

There's nowhere near the number of pro-Trump signs in yards like I saw four years ago.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,858 posts)
8. It's still mostly urban vs rural like most places.
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 03:07 PM
Sep 2020

The northern cities tend to be more blue, though, and will be most crucial for a Democratic win as usual.

Buckeye_Democrat

(14,858 posts)
14. I hope so!
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 03:17 PM
Sep 2020

Trump won the Dayton area (Montgomery County) by 1% last time. Many redneck immigrants around here, unfortunately. Yet I'll be shocked if Biden doesn't win this time!

I wish the entire state voted like Cleveland!

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Yavin4

(35,453 posts)
6. TX is that fastball pitch just outside the strike zone.
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 03:06 PM
Sep 2020

Looks like you can hit, but when you swing....stike out.

jorgevlorgan

(8,346 posts)
15. Unless our accuracy is 1 inch closer each time and now the ball is coming 1 inch away from the bat
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 03:17 PM
Sep 2020

Will we get it? Maybe if we focus a little harder on the ball.

jorgevlorgan

(8,346 posts)
16. For instance, Democrats have been consistently overperforming the polls since 2016
Thu Sep 24, 2020, 03:37 PM
Sep 2020

2016, Hillary was behind 11.7 in RCP and ended behind 9 (+2.7 for Clinton)

In 2018, O Rourke was behind 6.8 in RCP and lost by 2.6 (+4.2 for O Rourke)

Right now, Biden is behind 3.6 in RCP in texas. If he gets an average of the overperformance that Clinton and O Rourke received (3.45), he loses by .15%. If he fights hard in that state, and overperforms the polls closer to how O Rourke did, Biden wins. This is possibly, mayyyybe a more likely case of winning than FL, which the Democrat almost regularly underperforms from the polls on election day.

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