Donny boy is down to 21% on 538.. tick tock tick tock ..

[Le Roi de Pot]

November 3rd can't come soon.


Let's bury ...nay....crucify the bastard.

[mucifer]

1. Really interesting info in this 538 page:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Breaks down lots of stuff.

[Inablueway]

2. This is Great News

But I'm still skeptical after the majority of the polls picked Hillary in 2016. I get it that Biden is polling much better than Hillary did, but i'm still nervous. I hope Nate's predictions are spot on this time around, like they were when Obama was running.

Yes, November 3 can't get here fast enough.

[Amishman]

8. Nate's model was the only one that gave Trump a meaningful chance

the final run of his model in 2016 had Trump at 28.6%

It took a once in a generation type systematic polling error to put Trump of the top.

For Trump's chances to be significantly worse this time around means that the pollsters will need to be wrong again, by an even greater margin. Yes still possible, but I'm feeling surprisingly comfortable as the days tick by.

Also, 538's model uses the number of days to the election as a moderating measure. Polling numbers that would give a 90% / 10% chance a week before the election will give a significantly more even figure with five weeks to go.

[Inablueway]

9. Thanks for the info

I didn't realize - or had forgotten - that Nate's 2016 model was not all that bullish on Hillary.

I remember reading many months ago that Nate and other pollsters had adjusted their models to account for those who did not answer trustfully when asked who they would vote for.

[The Magistrate]

3. So Long As It's Not Yet Dead, Sir

Burying the whining loser sounds fine to me....

[WheelWalker]

4. I approve of this message.

[The Magistrate]

6. Thank You, Sir

I like your signature line. This is one I am fond of:

"Many problems began as solutions."

[exboyfil]

5. You know those monster movies

where you think the monster is dead.....


GOTV and run the score up. One moronic functionary (Comey) shifted the last election enough. Now we have the leadership of the government working overtime to duplicate what Comey did before.

[bearsfootball516]

7. It must have swung back, it's showing 22 percent on my end.

[Le Roi de Pot]

10. yes ..

up and downs --- but hopefully the right direction