Save this post. We'll have a winner on election night.

[Drunken Irishman]

Biden will cross 270 and the media will call it shortly after polls close on the west coast. This fear of delayed counting won't manifest at near the level teased.

Trump might not concede but Biden won't care. We'll have a President-elect at 11:15 ET.

[H2O Man]

1. Recommended.

I agree 100%.

[grantcart]

21. Yep. North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be early. PA may b slow

FL could be very close but could be counted early.

Ohio and Iowa will put it away early as well.

[SouthernCal_Dem]

2. My prediction

Biden will be declared the winner once the west coast polls close at 8pm (11pm eastern).

[dchill]

3. Then expect Trump/Barr to do something before Election Day.

[snowybirdie]

4. Keep Drinking Irish

From your mouth to God's ear!

[madaboutharry]

5. I know that in the state I live in

they begin counting mail-in ballots first thing in the morning and feed them into the tabulators. They are required by law to have all the votes counted by 10pm on Election Day.

[Blasphemer]

6. Agreed. There will be unprecedent turnout on the left including in person voting.. nt

[Dem2]

7. I have reminded people that mailed in votes are usually counted before same-day votes

Thus the jump in percentage in states with a lot of mail-in voting. I know my mail-in is simply the exact same ballot that I would fill out in person and put through the machine in a gym. Takes 2 seconds.

[FM123]

8. That would be great, I would love that.

Wait, how about 11:11 - those are my lucky numbers!

[sweetloukillbot]

9. If Florida can be called, you're right

And I think the only reason Florida stretched out in 18 was because of a recount, right?

[TreasonousBastard]

10. Electoral votes get submitted in December and he can shit in his hat after that.

[hlthe2b]

11. I think we might too. As long as everyone votes, votes early and takes no excuses from hesitant

friends, family members, and colleagues.

[Trumpdumper]

12. Biden MAY cross 270 shortly after 9 p.m.

If he takes GA, NC, OH, FL, MI, PA and WI (all of which except MI and WI close by 8 p.m., so we'd have an hour or so of vote tabulating already from those states), Joe would have 274 EVs even before battleground IA and the deeply blue states of NV, OR, WA, CA and HI have reported.

[634-5789]

23. Let's not forget Illinois....20 EVs, and a will to crush tRump

[Thekaspervote]

13. The poll aggregator for the Economist thinks we will know the winner on election night

[Demsrule86]

14. I think the same thing...I have said this too...

What will be more and more apparent as time goes by is that he massacred Trump...

[Le Roi de Pot]

15. Florida is critical

[Maeve]

16. From your mouth....

I hope with all my heart that you are right!

[Laelth]

17. I agree. n/t

-Laelth

[PatSeg]

18. You know

I've been thinking the same thing. I really don't believe it will go on for weeks, like many are anticipating. I have a feeling it will be over with much quicker. Might go later than 11:15 ET election night though, but I do think we'll have a definite winner in a reasonable timeframe.

[TwilightZone]

19. Agreed. His whining will result in nothing.

No one will care if it's a Biden blow-out.

[cwydro]

20. Sure do hope so.

This country has gone sideways.

[MissB]

22. I rather hope so

I’d prefer to get drunk for the right reasons

[malaise]

24. +1.000

ByeDon!

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Only if Biden wins Florida, or NC and AZ

I believe those states all count absentee ballots as they are received. PA is the strongest tipping point state, but I’m not sure we’ll know their results clearly enough on Election Night, even though the polls are strongly in Joe’s favor. So, after PA, I believe the next tipping point states are NC, AZ, and FL, and those results should be complete enough to project a winner. If Biden doesn’t win those states, then we might not see the networks calling it for Biden on the 3rd, because the Rust Belt states will likely have hundreds of thousands of uncounted absentee ballots.

Is it the results from those states that you’re basing your prediction on, or some other scenario?

[Drunken Irishman]

27. If Biden wins by his average lead currently, I think we'll get the results from PA to call it.

Pennsylvania will begin counting mail-in ballots at 8am on election day (unless they get it moved to earlier). That will give them roughly 12 hours head start on counting those ballots before polls close. THEN an additional few hours beyond that. I suspect the lead will be large enough that they'll call it even if 25% of the ballots are still outstanding.

BUT I think Biden wins Ohio and Ohio will be called on election night. So, even if PA doesn't come in...

[Fiendish Thingy]

28. Hope you're right - at this point the wind is at Joe's back. Nt

[Drunken Irishman]

31. This reminds me of 2008, to be honest...

Obviously the circumstances are different but 2008 broke for Obama-Biden around this point and that's what I'm feeling. I feel there's a shift coming and Biden is going to swamp Trump.

God willing.

[paleotn]

35. Ohio and it's off to bed early....

Just like 2008.

[paleotn]

34. PA, WI and MI....

win those three and NC, AZ and FL are gravy.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KQ6om

[Fiendish Thingy]

37. Yes, but we won't likely know the results of the Rust Belt on election night

As they don’t start counting absentees until Election Day, whereas FL, NC and I think AZ count absentees as they are received.

[paleotn]

39. I agree with the OP....

we will probably know from in person, before all absentees are counted. I've predicted for some time now that Donnie will 180 on absentees and vote by mail and declare the election not over until all the vote-by-mail is counted. When that makes the outcome worse for him, then he'll start shouting fraud.

[Demsrule86]

40. Michigan has taken steps to get the vote counted quickly and Wisconsin won't matter

if Joe take Florida, Arizona or Ohio...in addition to PA and MI. Hell we are tied in Georgia, NC,SC, Iowa and ahead in Arizona...have not seen recent polls for Florida.

[Hip2bSquare]

26. Saved!!

I'm getting more and more confident. Call it a bit of PTSD and having flashbacks of 2016 and being horrified seeing he won. But after more and more experts saying this election is not like 2016 has been comforting.

I can't wait for this nightmare to finally end.

[Tribetime]

29. Im dreaming and say he'll reach 270 before 11 est

[Doreen]

30. I must mot understand.

I thought that electoral votes made the final decision. If most of the electoral votes go for trump what does that mean? I know Biden is going to get the higher popular vote ( higher than Hillary's ) but will it matter? It didn't in 2016. Then there are the Russians and other dictator countries helping him. That is what frightens me.

[paleotn]

32. If Biden takes WI, MI and PA

it's over. NV, NM and CO should be reliably Democratic. Everything else is gravy.

[Mr.Bill]

33. I have no doubt it will be obvious on election night,

but we don't have a president-elect until the Electoral College meets. And I think all the talk about Trump tampering with that is just wishful thinking by the wingnuts.

[paleotn]

36. That's the rub....

WI, MI and PA legislatures are controlled by fascists. They may attempt to put forward their own EC electors. But this won't be a repeat of 2000. Dems are ready. With this a Covid-19 raging, it will be a rough and tumble early Winter.

[Demsrule86]

41. No.They would have to change the election laws and the Governor could veto the legislation.

We have Democratic governors in all those states...not happening

[lanlady]

38. I'm so glad you posted this, Drunken Irishman

My gut's been telling me this election won't even be close and that Biden will win in a landslide. That might just be wishful thinking messing with my mind but damn, I hope we're both right!

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Bump.

Still think this - even more so now than a month ago!