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General Discussion

brooklynite

(94,803 posts) Wed Sep 30, 2020, 03:52 PM Sep 2020

5

THE ECONOMIST campaign model: State by State win probabilities

Virginia: Biden 96%
Minnesota: Biden 93%
Michigan: Biden 90%
New Hampshire: Biden 89%
Wisconsin: Biden 88%
Nevada: Biden 86%
Pennsylvania: Biden 84%
Florida: Biden 68%
Arizona: Biden 63%
North Carolina: Biden 58%

Georgia: Trump: 56%
Ohio: Trump 62%
Iowa: Trump 64%
Texas: Trump 79%

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

7 replies

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THE ECONOMIST campaign model: State by State win probabilities (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2020 OP

living in Texas qazplm135 Sep 2020 #1

Surprised by Florida Cosmocat Sep 2020 #2

If Biden Wins, FL... ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #7

I predict we will win TX,OH, GA, IA and NE jorgevlorgan Sep 2020 #3

I like the way you think 👌 Tribetime Sep 2020 #6

Let's see what it says after a few days of polling Tribetime Sep 2020 #4

I predict Trump for Ohio by a sliver .. BUT KentuckyWoman Sep 2020 #5

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)

1. living in Texas

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 04:40 PM

Sep 2020

I'd move it closer to Iowa and Ohio percentages.

Cosmocat

(14,576 posts)

2. Surprised by Florida

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 04:56 PM

Sep 2020

Seems that is closer to 50/50, but that is game set match if it happens.

IF we stay where we are now at least I can see the 330 EV range.

ProfessorGAC

(65,265 posts)

7. If Biden Wins, FL...

Reply to Cosmocat (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 06:03 PM

Sep 2020

...it will be a blow out. He gets those EC votes, he'll hit at least 350.

jorgevlorgan

(8,342 posts)

3. I predict we will win TX,OH, GA, IA and NE

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 05:27 PM

Sep 2020

If I'm right, I'll buy you Olive Garden.

Tribetime

(4,713 posts)

6. I like the way you think 👌

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 05:57 PM

Sep 2020

Tribetime

(4,713 posts)

4. Let's see what it says after a few days of polling

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 05:31 PM

Sep 2020

After the so called debate....I think it will add more states for Joe

KentuckyWoman

(6,697 posts)

5. I predict Trump for Ohio by a sliver .. BUT

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 30, 2020, 05:36 PM

Sep 2020

He will have to use intimidation against local election officials and expensive lawsuits to invalidate ballots in order to do it.

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