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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCovid-19 death rates are lower worldwide, but no one is sure whether that's a blip or a trend. WPost
After working for three months straight at Detroit Medical Center, Said El Zein noticed that the coronavirus patients who began arriving in May appeared less sick than those who came before.
More than 4,000 miles away in northern Italy, researcher Chiara Piubelli was struck by the same thing.
Rafael Cantón, an infectious-disease specialist in Madrid, also marveled at the change. Its totally different, he said last month of the falling admissions at his medical center, noting that only 130 of 1,000 beds were full despite surging infections a huge change from early spring when every bed was occupied.
Death rates from the novel coronavirus are lower in hot spots around the world, even as new infections accelerate in what may be the pandemics next wave. Scientists are confident the change is real, but the reasons for it and whether it will last are a matter of intense debate.
Is this a trend or a blip? asked Joshua Barocas, an infectious-disease specialist at the Boston University School of Medicine. Nobody really knows.
The mortality rate of the coronavirus has been a moving target since the outbreak began.
Early reports out of China put it as high as 7 percent. But that was based mostly on hospitalized patients, and by the time the wave hit the United States, epidemiologists believed it was closer to 2 to 3 percent. Now, factoring in asymptomatic infections, as well as mild cases that might not be part of official tallies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the mortality rate at 0.65 percent.
Barocas emphasized that even the lowest estimates represent the potential for millions more deaths. The United States already has the highest number of cases in the world and the most recorded deaths of any country. Though its 330 million people represent roughly 4.25 percent of the worlds population, the country has recorded just over 20 percent of deaths from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
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One idea that has generated a lot of discussion recently, bolstered by two back-to-back studies El Zeins and another from Italy, presented in late September to the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases is that social distancing and masks are reducing the dose of virus people are receiving, resulting in less-severe illness.
more at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/09/covid-mortality-rate-down/
OnlinePoker
(5,724 posts)And what works in one place should work elsewhere so that knowledge gets passed on quickly.
Hugin
(33,169 posts)due to distancing and mask use.
Not anything to do with the virus 'changing'.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Hugin
(33,169 posts)Thanks!
ananda
(28,870 posts)Medicine has improved in treating Covid.
Scientists and doctors understand the disease better.
Most new cases are not among the elderly and most
vulnerable.
And last, scientists have said that a coronavirus typically
mutates in a way that makes it less deadly and more
contagious since the virus wants more hosts and doesn't
want them to die.
njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)WSHazel
(159 posts)The stronger strains kill their hosts before they can jump to a new host, while the weaker strains survive. This should not be a big surprise. I suspect that social distancing also plays a role. Whatever the relative weight of those and other factors is, there is no arguing that we are nowhere near the hell of March and April.
Smart move is to continue to run out the clock on this disease with social distancing, and hopefully it will continue to weaken.
tanyev
(42,591 posts)completely ignoring that mask-wearing is most likely the reason it's happening.
JCMach1
(27,562 posts)I am 99% certain I would not be typing this for you if I had caught the disease in March/April.
I am also 100% certain science is the only that gets all the others moving.
Science and common sense until safe and effective vaccine.
Turin_C3PO
(14,016 posts)Hope you're feeling a lot better.
LizBeth
(9,952 posts)seeing what works and what does not. Of course death rate has lowered. I said back in March, I am holding out until medicine has caught up with the virus in knowledge for better treatments.