General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSherman A1
(38,958 posts)jorgevlorgan
(8,305 posts)Based on simply who received a higher percentage of the vote in their primary elections. It is about as reliable as who wins the Redskins game. When they get this one wrong they will still have a 23/27 success rate.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)jorgevlorgan
(8,305 posts)LeftInTX
(25,465 posts)I know people who actually believe primary results as general election results.
Shrike47
(6,913 posts)You know, that might be kind of fun, asking up a person and posting in various venues about him...
Turin_C3PO
(14,019 posts)Hahaha good one!
sweetloukillbot
(11,046 posts)Guy seems to be a right wing British pundit of some sort
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,027 posts)I think the first factor outweighs the second this year. In a sense the Republicons have been running their con game for forty years, which is a long time and they look like they may fall hard this year.
Shrike47
(6,913 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,017 posts)Under The Radar
(3,404 posts)To me it appears that Trump himself conducted this poll. Not only is it completely opposite than what all other polling data is showing, but it has pushed its data far beyond the possibility of reason....like trump did with his hurricane map, his healthcare plan. If you are going to lie man at least make it somewhat believable
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)For the lie to believable its has to be somewhat realistic, and giving Hawaii and NY to trump isnt.
still_one
(92,317 posts)Cattledog
(5,917 posts)I love this tweet: " Also while the Helmut Norpoth model predicted Trump would win in 2016, his projected map didn't look anything like what really happened. He had Trump winning CO, NH, NM, NV, OR, VA, none of which happened."
BootinUp
(47,171 posts)judesedit
(4,440 posts)and rightwing operatives hacking of e-voting machines We have been warned of this problem for decades now and it doesn't seem to be taken seriously. A child can flip votes and was shown doing it on national television. Why do you think Ivanka Dump bought electronic voting equipment companies from China? Please correct me if I'm wrong. Helmut may be a buddy of Pooty-poot and have inside info on the intended goings on.
Thekaspervote
(32,785 posts)judesedit
(4,440 posts)Diebold and Sequoia if I recall correctly
Tribetime
(4,699 posts)ProfessorGAC
(65,120 posts)...Pennsylvania red, despite almost all other polls, and Colorado blue with a question mark.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)ProfessorGAC
(65,120 posts)That's why I left that one alone.
CO is a state we watch because one of my wife's best friends, since grade school, lives there.
I saw it was blue, then a question mark. Either he thinks it's a toss up or forgot to look up how many EC votes they have.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,871 posts)And it is absolutely not going Red. I live in NM, I know.
We will also have a House delegation that is not only all female, but all Hispanic and/or Native American.
Thekaspervote
(32,785 posts)He bases his predictions on how a candidate did in the primaries, actual votes. Okay, but this guy is only looking at the first 3 democratic primaries in which Biden lost- IA, NH and NV which he didnt really loose NV, just wasnt in the first 2 slots.
What about the other 48 primary races where Biden blew the doors off?
Prof. norpoth, did you take into consideration that especially in NH and NV that 6-12% of the vote were gop crossover votes?? Voters who never intended on voting for the dem candidate in the general?
What a bunch of malarkey!!
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Thank goodness for those outliers. The Sanders/Biden situation in the primaries is something a model like this cannot account for, and basically doesn't respect, and likewise coronavirus impact in subsequent months is not contemplated by the model.
The model relies on normalcy and competence after the early primary season. That is going to hold up the vast majority of the time.
Donald Trump is the enemy and the asterisk of any systematic approach. He had massive advantage as incumbent and threw it away. That basically is what the model is indicating. In politics it stands out only because of the spotlight and the every 4 years aspect. In sports I have dozens of great systematic models than run into occasional outliers. Big deal. I understand the abnormality and hang onto the system. Likewise it would be silly to dismiss this model as no longer meaningful going forward. It makes tons of sense.
Thekaspervote
(32,785 posts)That makes no sense.
As a model, if all the primaries were sampled yes.
JDC
(10,130 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)Link to tweet
So, since 1916?
Pretty impressive since Helmut Norpoth wasnt born until decades later.
ProfessorGAC
(65,120 posts)Big deal! He found a correlation between someone getting a lot of votes in a primary getting lots of votes in the EC.
Don't need a model, or even math to find that correlation.
But, this does, not at all, establish causation.
The factors that lead to a big primary total aren't necessarily the same that lead to an EC majority. This is a general consensus amount political experts. It's why candidates typically run to the middle for the EC.
It's contingent upon him to demonstrate a causative link, which is not done in the model.
And, for all know, he weighted some thing to assure that 24/26. After all, he claimed to accurately predict elections from over 90 years ago where the result was a known. Easy to tweak a model to get the correct prediction when you already know the result.
There's no valid math behind this, and it's a sloppy & simplistic model.
Thekaspervote
(32,785 posts)nsd
(2,406 posts)He's a (tenured full) professor in the political science department at Stony Brook.
But his model revolves around the importance of vote totals in early primary states, as a proxy for an incumbent's standing in his own party and for the enthusiasm the opposition party has for the challenger.
As a thought experiment, it's fine and it's not any worse than a lot of what passes for scholarship in political science departments. But it is also very easy to criticize (e.g., Norpath's model doesn't consider polling data) and its claim to fame (successfully predicting the winner since 1996) is not particularly impressive. Other than 2016, I think I could have done that too -- no model required!
Trump supporters have latched onto Norpath because his is the only model predicting a Trump victory, but there is nothing special about it. I don't think it deserves much attention. A poll-based model (like Silver's or that of the Economist) is much easier to take seriously.
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,333 posts)Marius25
(3,213 posts)They have Trump losing New Hampshire, which is a fairly purple state, although it leans blue, but they have Trump winning New York, one of the bluest states in the country.
And they have Trump winning Hawaii - which has zero Republican political officials.
LiberalFighter
(51,005 posts)So he must know what he is doing.
ProfessorGAC
(65,120 posts)So, there's that!
Just_Vote_Dem
(2,813 posts)Quixote1818
(28,955 posts)Then they can take their money.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)Reconsider your model that predicts Trump to win New York.
The model is overfit to that data and its reacting very badly this cycle.
Sunsky
(1,737 posts)Xolodno
(6,398 posts)[link:
Link to tweet
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You know, you would think there wood be links behind that to support the track recoord.