New National poll (NYT/Siena, A+): Biden +9

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[Sherman A1]

1. K&R

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Trump has hung in the low 40s for most polls for a long long time

1) hard to see how that changes. You have a small percent of undecideds, the challenger over 50%, and there just is no major issue that could reverse public opinion, especially when public opinion is already formed by many, large, settled major issues.
2) at least in this poll he's in the lower end of the low 40s
3) aside from the IBD poll today, he's usually around 43%

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. All sounds great but he's got his eye on FL and PA :(

[bucolic_frolic]

5. PA worries me, those small cities with ethnic connections going back 100 years or more

and a grapevine that runs through several ethnic populations in NYC area. They're connected by family, history, occupations, war service, financial support, post-War pyramid marketing, buying habits, you name it. It's a coffee table army.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. If we can get enough in the city of Erie

and surrounding burbs to flip Erie County back to blue where they always used to be, it will go a long way towards wiping out that 44,000 vote difference that tipped the state.

It took months and months and months of the media fixation on "Scranton Scranton Scranton" and "NE PA" (that still voted for Hillary in 2016, although barely) before someone finally took a look at NW PA and what happened there with that county's flip. IMHO that was done on purpose.

I am hoping one of the surrogates returns to Erie - but goes right to the city, which I believe may be the 4th largest city (at 96,000) in the state behind Philly, Pittsburgh, and Allentown - all of which are bigger than Scranton.

[bucolic_frolic]

7. Damn! You always have a solution. Hope you get somebody to listen to you. /nt

[BumRushDaShow]

8. If you look at the county map for 2012 vs 2016

you see where there were some issues -

2012 (Presidential)



2016 (Presidential)



Erie County flipped to red by almost 2000 votes (1957 to be exact) - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyResults?countyName=Erie&ElectionID=54&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

CLINTON, HILLARY
(DEM)
46.99%
Votes: 58,112
Runningmate: TIM KAINE

TRUMP, DONALD J
(REP)
48.57%
Votes: 60,069

But here is what happened for the 2018 gubernatorial election -

2018 (Gubernatorial)



I expect there may be ticket-splitting going on this go-around too. During that 2018 election, you had 2 of the most RW loons the PA GOP could put up to run against Wolf and Casey and Wolf won 58% - 41% and Casey won 56% - 43%.

Even Conor Lamb won his then-non-special election full term seat 56% - 44%.

With the un-gerrymandering of the state in 2018, we went from 13 (R) - 5 (D) to 9 (R) - 9 (D) -

2018 (Congressional)



I think a lot of what happened in 2016 was pure anti-Clinton hatred unfortunately.

[BootinUp]

3. Toast. Toast. Toast. Nt