CDC Early Release: Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy

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From the CDC's Emerging Infectious Diseases publication:

Abstract
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67–0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.

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Conclusion [final paragraph]
Italy was the first country outside of Asia to impose a nationwide lockdown, rapidly followed by many countries worldwide. The effectiveness of lockdown had been proven in China, where the reproduction number was estimated to fall to »0.3 in Wuhan (12) and 0.5 in other provinces (8); Western countries had enforced a comparatively softer version of restrictions. We have shown that these measures enabled rapid reversal of the epidemic trend within 2 weeks, although probably at higher values of the reproduction number.

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