Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/20/20
Updated, 2:30 PM, 10/20/20
Minor SOS update with rurals reduced the Dem lead a bit:
281K total ballots cast: 16 percent
Mail: Dems+54K
In-person: GOP+7K
Statewide Dem lead is 47K or 48-31.
More detail later....
Updated, 12:15 PM, 10/20/20
The SOS has updated both of its key pages, here and here. Here’s what we know:
----About 280,000 ballots have been cast – this includes all returned mail and in-person. That’s nearly 16 percent of active voters. This does not include an update on mail from Clark County, though. The Democrats have a 48,000 raw ballot lead in the state, or 17 points. The percentage lead is dropping (hello, rurals and in-person voting!), but the raw ballot lead is increasing. It was 45,000 after two weeks in 2016.
----The Clark firewall is at 44,500 – it was 73,000 after two weeks of early voting in ’16.
----In 2016, Clark was 69.5 percent of the vote, Washoe was 18 percent and the rurals were 12.5 percent. Right now, those numbers: Clark, 56 percent; Washoe, 28 percent; rurals, 16 percent. So Clark is way underrepresented now if turnout is comparable to 2016 – or other years. And Washoe, where nearly a third of those who are going to vote may have voted already, is way overrepresented. Keep an eye on Clark as its percentage grows – if the Dems keep crushing it in mail in Clark and the GOP can’t make up for it in early voting, the lead will become very large. But the large number of voters also gives the GOP an opportunity — through early voting and/or on Election Day — to cut into the margin.
----Mail ballots returned compared to early voting is 2 to 1. (It’s also 2 to 1, Dems over Repubs.) This never happens, so it’s a very different pattern. How different? In 2016, it was early voting by a 9 to 1 margin. Just so you know, the mail ballots accepted for counting – those not awaiting signature verification or curing – have about the same percentages between Ds and Rs.
----Tale of two states:
Urban Nevada = Dems +54K
Rural Nevada = Rs +6K
----It’s still unclear how much of the total vote will be eaten up before Election Day. It’s usually two-thirds, but with the Dems mailing it in and the GOP wedded to in-person voting, that may change. It may be part of the reason Clark is so far down – Republicans usually win or do very well on Election Day. They may need a landslide this year, which could happen if many wait until Nov. 3 to vote.
----The percentage of non-major-party voters is about 22 percent. In 2016 at the end of the election, that number was 24 percent.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
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