*Poll Alert* Lots of good news!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[Garion_55]

1. Holy Cow Michigan

Please Lord let these numbers be true if Biden can lock these States down I believe it's all over

[torius]

2. Awaiting Tweet storm!!

[kurtcagle]

3. Ohio would be nice

but I'm not holding out a lot of hope for it. Ohio and Missouri tend to be pretty heavily correlated any more, and both have become redder over time.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Very disappointed in the Ohio numbers. Biden led 50-45 in their last poll. That's quite a collapse.

[Salviati]

14. Honestly, that poll and this one are the same.

Movement within the MoE is meaningless. Add it to the average and look at that and any overall trends.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Missouri and Ohio have very similar education numbers

It was so helpful for Pew to post that educational table in August. I''d tinkered with lots of stuff to combine with the ideology numbers but nothing was making sense until seeing those educational numbers by state, given the recent split in that category

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/08/18/a-resource-for-state-preelection-polling/

The national number in 2016 was 30% no-college and 40% college graduate

Missouri: 36-31
Ohio: 37-34

The gap needs to be the other way as pure swing state. The college graduate number needs to be many points higher than the non-college number. That's why North Carolina at 29-38 is more available now than Ohio at 37-34.

I think I made a mistake the other day and listed North Carolina at 31/38. I copied the wrong number. It is indeed slightly better at 29/38, so very close to the national margin of 10 points.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Not awful news but I wouldn't consider this good news. It's a decline for Biden.

Biden led 50-42 in FOX' last Wisconsin poll, so, he's dropped one-point and Trump has gained two.

Biden led 50-45 in FOX' last Ohio poll, so, he's lost five-points and Trump has gained three.

Biden led 51-44 in FOX' last Pennsylvania poll, so, he's lost one-point and Trump gained one.

Michigan looks good but that's a significant decline for Biden in the three states - most devastating is going from leading in Ohio by five to trailing by three. An eight-point swing isn't ideal.

[triron]

6. Be cautious in giving too much weight to a single poll, especially after many votes are already cast

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I agree but FOX News has generally been bullish on Biden this election...

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could have been noise - but that Ohio poll gives me pause. That's quite the collapse for Biden there. To go from leading by 5 to trailing by 3. A swing of eight-points at a point where Ohio is now voting, concerns me.

[ananda]

8. I wonder what happened with Ohio.

Biden was doing pretty well there for awhile.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. It's a repeat of 2016.

Hillary was doing well there until mid-October and then cratered and Trump bulldozed ahead.

I hope that isn't a sign of a shift in the rust-belt states like it was four years ago.

[NewsCenter28]

13. It's why tomorrow is so important

There's definitely been *some* erosion for VPJB now. It's becoming clearer. Another strong debate performance will expand the numbers out again I think and makes all the prep off-the-trail worthwhile.

Regardless, at least the lead is 5%+ in PA, MI and WI in these polls. 5% is around what PA went for President Obama in 2012, as well.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Tomorrow is not important.

It's irrelevant. The race isn't going to be decided, on either side, by tomorrow's debate. If Biden is going to lose, it won't be because of tomorrow. If Trump is going to lose, it won't be because of tomorrow. Tomorrow's debate might be the most inconsequential presidential debate in history.

[ananda]

15. Yes, but why?

What's different between Ohio and say Michigan, Wisconsin,
and Pennsylvania (where Biden is well ahead)???

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Ohio has always been out of step with those states.

Even in years Democrats won Ohio, they did so with margins much smaller than in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

A big reason is that southern Ohio might as well be Northern Kentucky/Northern West Virginia.

[ananda]

18. I see. Bummer.

Thanks for explaining.

[Thekaspervote]

11. Quinnipiac out today PA Biden +10 53-43

[Blue Owl]

12. STICK A FORK IN DONNY -- HE'S DONE