New South Carolina Poll (Morning Consult, B/C): Biden -7, Harrison +2

[brooklynite]

[Jamesyu]

1. If trump only wins South Carolina by 6

Good chance Harrison takes that Senate seat.

[BootinUp]

5. So people will split tickets and vote

Trump / Harrison. Seems odd, but works for me.

[JI7]

15. It's an anti Graham vote from their View

[sunonmars]

2. except Arizona,is a real outlier, Kelly is not only ahead by 4 and Trump is not ahead.

That seems off.

[helpisontheway]

3. I was wondering what happened to Kelly..nt

[still_one]

4. If we get Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, I think it is over for trump

[BComplex]

6. And Florida!

They're looking good right now.

And I'm hoping beyond hope that Texans come out in droves to vote for democrats. I'm just really pulling for Texas to turn blue.

[still_one]

7. We wouldn't need Florida in that case. However, if we get Florida in the early returns, trump is

history

[Cosmocat]

10. We need Florida

and as many other states the lunatic got in 2016, to win going away to tamp down his refusing the results, to win the senate and and sweep Rs out in congress and at the state level.

45 needs soundly beaten to counter the hissy fit he will throw, Joe needs a clear mandate and the kind of majority to clean house in DC of all the scumbags that have been placed there the last four year, and to do the kind of reform needed to give us a chance to prevent this kind of insane right wing take over in the future.

[still_one]

11. I am saying we can win without it. Specifically if we get Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

[mercuryblues]

14. Biden can win without FL.

I don't think trump can win without FL.

Biden needs to win Fl, if only to keep trump from having a chance.

[Celerity]

12. multiple ways (including nightmare of nightmares 269-269 ties) we can win those yet lose

not saying these are likely btw, just showing most of of the remotely possible scenarios

There are 6 states that are not pure dead blue locks that we all mostly put in our column as we are very solid for several years (or longer) in them

NV, CO, NM, MN, NH, VA

the two closest are NV and MN

Trump takes those 2, we can sweep all the rest, plus we win PA, WI, and MI, we flip both NE-2 and ME-2, plus we can even flip Alaska and still lose, as long as he holds the rest on the following map



here are some other scenarios where we win PA, MI, and WI, yet still lose

[still_one]

13. I believe the odds favor us in Minnesota Celerity

[Celerity]

17. oh, yes the odds favour us in all 6, that is why they are almost always listed blue

NV, CO, NM, MN, NH, VA

[dustyscamp]

18. Nv better not go red

[Celerity]

19. this is (obviously) assuming a lot, but if we win WI, MI, PA and Trump flips NV and MN, then the

election comes down to 3 states (based off other results that come from those trends)

AK and ME-2 and ME-2 do not matter if those are the states we win and they win

NC
AZ
FL

Trump has to sweep all 3 of NC, AZ, and FL, and the trends of all the other assumptions in this scenario make each one of the 3 states near 50/50, any person who can look at the following map and say that they know 100% for sure who wins the 3 brown states is talking trash

odds are higher that IF he did flip NV, AZ goes Red, leaving NC and FL, with NC likely (again given ALL the other results, going as they are here, going Red as well, so yet again, it is possibly down to the most fucked up (electorally-wise for prognostications) state in the union, Florida)




and a final scenario

We hold NV, and all else stays the same as in the title line

now.....

IF Trump then holds Alaska (likely given all these trends we are assuming in this scenario) then all he needs to win is to hold one of ME-2 (the more likely of the two for him to hold) or NE-2 or both

a split of either yields the nightmarish 269-269 tie with the House (barring a crazy series of upsets) putting him back in the office of POTUS (as the Rethugs will 95%+ most likely have control 26 or more state delegations in the House, FL is the only real chance we have to take one away, but they have good shots to add either or both MI and PA, WI is FAR too gerrymandered for us to pull it away)

If he wins both NE-2 and ME-2 again, he wins 270-268









btw, EVERY scenario is exactly the same in all my replies if we win MN, but lose WI (as they both are worth 10 EV's)

I just used MN because the original poster I replied to said if we win WI, PA, and MI is is over (and it is not, although our odds are MUCH better than Rump's at that point)

[MFM008]

8. Were still going to win

Period.

[honest.abe]

9. There are very good numbers where it really matters.

Florida is the killer.

[Silent3]

16. I'm having a hard time imagining the mindset of a voter who votes for both Harrison and Trump

These polls tell us that there must be around 9% who would do just that, however.