North Carolina and the CBS/YouGov Poll

[angrychair]

So I'm going to get a little down in the weeds here but doing so helps ease my anxiety, a little, when I break down the math. This will follow the same pattern as my Florida one I did earlier.

This is based on the breakdown as its given in the CBS/YouGov poll about the vote breakdown of what has happened and what is left.

here is how I broke it down, based on the poll:

average of voter turnout appears less than 70% (it was 68% in 2016) so I am using a slightly higher measure of 70% turnout of registered voters.

Early and mail-in voting, according to the NC State Board of Elections, is 3,100,086 (as of 10/25).
51% of likely voters have already voted according to the CBS poll. Based on that premise, that leaves an outstanding vote, between now and election day, of 2,020,143. That would give us a total of 5,120,229 or 70% turnout based on the current number of registered voters of 7,314,614.

of the vote already in: 1,891,052 or 61% has broken in favor of Biden
and 36% has broken toward trump or 1,116,031

of the remaining vote expected to come in on Election day, 828,258 or 41% is expected to break for Biden

and 58% to break toward trump or 1,171,683

Here is what those totals look like-

Totals
Biden 53% 2,719,310
Trump 44% 2,287,714
Other 2% 113,205

Caveats:
I used the number of actual votes already submitted from North Carolina's voting website (https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data) as my base number and extrapolated the rest based on percentages from the survey of 'vote made' and 'vote to be made'.

vote to be made is far more subjective than vote that has been made. That, in theory, could go either way but would tend to favor Biden based on what we know of vote that is already in.

Based on CBS/YouGov poll numbers, it would appear that Biden is favored to win on Election Day.

[Happyhippychick]

1. How is that poll rated?

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. 538 rates it a B

[angrychair]

5. article someone posted in my other OP

about Florida stated it was a good battleground state pollster

https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/news/local/2-wants-to-know/these-polls-were-the-most-accurate-in-2016-here-is-where-they-stand-now/83-465826c8-a49f-465d-a9c3-a82a1d96e60f

Mainly just counter to the meme being pushed by the trump campaign about how much of the polling it says will break toward them on Election Day.
Given the amount of vote we have already banked, those numbers don't mean what the trump admin thinks it means.
they are a day late and dollar short.

[angrychair]

4. according to a link someone posted in my OP about Florida

The CBS poll was pretty good last time around:

https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/news/local/2-wants-to-know/these-polls-were-the-most-accurate-in-2016-here-is-where-they-stand-now/83-465826c8-a49f-465d-a9c3-a82a1d96e60f

[writes3000]

2. I'm excited to see how close your prediction comes to the actual numbers. Fingers crossed.

Thanks for doing this. It eases my anxiety, too.

[Happyhippychick]

6. I hope you are right!

[captain queeg]

7. I hope so. I've visited there several times but always in the urban areas.

I think there’s plenty of Trumpers out in the sticks (or wealthy enclaves). But one thing I noticed staying in a hotel there And going down for the continental breakfast; I’ve stayed in many of those kinds of hotels on business trips. Everywhere always they seem to have Fox on a TV at the breakfast room. In Charlotte they had CNN. Not exactly a survey, but it was so different it registered with me.

[BadgerMom]

8. Thank you for these calculations.

It eases my mind some as well.