Mark McKinnon: "Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast"

[brooklynite]

Vanity Fair

With just over a week to go before Election Day, everyone is freaking out under an avalanche of polling. Most polls show Joe Biden with a substantial advantage nationally and a comfortable lead in key swing states. But of course Donald Trump’s campaign and its supporters are defiant. They insist: “Well, that’s what everyone said in 2016.” Meanwhile, the Biden campaign and its supporters are nervous. They, too, caution: “Well, that’s what everyone said in 2016.”

In many ways 2020 is haunted by 2016. So in an effort to tune into a clear, crisp radio signal through all the white noise, I interviewed the ultimate expert: Dave Wasserman. He’s one of the very few political seers who predicted—in mid-September of 2016, no less—that Trump might very well lose the popular vote and yet win the electoral college.

Wasserman covers congressional races for the nonpartisan and widely respected Cook Political Report. He has a microscopic understanding of what is happening around the country politically. And I sat down with him for Sunday night’s episode of Showtime’s The Circus, a weekly assessment of the campaign shitshow. Some of our conversation appeared on air; some was left on the cutting-room floor.

After talking with him I came away with the sense that Trump is not just toast, but burnt toast. To use a poker metaphor: In the last election, Trump won by pulling an inside straight. This time he’ll need nothing short of a royal flush—by pulling an ace from his sleeve.

[SWBTATTReg]

1. Burnt toast...and he kind of looks like it too. Either that, or well done.

[greenjar_01]

2. Reason tells us that an incumbent who can't break 44% facing a challenger constantly over 50%

is finished. Reason tells us that this many projections cannot all be off by the same amount (roughly) at the same time, just a week before the election. Reason tells us that surpassing the early voting totals with nine days to go suggests a massive enthusiasm that does not favor the incumbent. Reason tells us that a Republican incumbent having to defend Georgia and Texas suggests disaster for the incumbent.

Reason tells us all these things, and it's OK, it's fine, it's appropriate, it's understandable to say hey, listen, Biden's going to win big.

Reason tells us all these things.

[Indykatie]

3. I'm Hopeful the Margins for a Biden Victory Continue to Grow - Landslides Are Harder to Steal

[Stallion]

4. He's Been Polling at 42% Since He Was Elected

after awhile you realize that's all he's gone-he chased off the rest. There isn't going to be a significant late run

[idziak4ever1234]

5. slathered in orange marmalade

[dweller]

9. pee pee jelly ...

made especially for him 😖

✌🏻

[Mr. Ected]

6. Polling for the past 4 years has shown us exactly what Trump's reach is

He's got a solid 38 -42% of the population. He hasn't really gained supporters. And they won't magically appear on voting day. Worry is in an actual highjacking of our election in ways we mere mortals couldn't contemplate or foresee. Further worry in the reaction of a fascist regime ceding power in a democratically-required manner. You simply know it won't happen. They want a civil war. Damned straight they do. But only if they're in power.

[FloridaBlues]

7. Still nervous about Pennsylvania and Florida going Bidens way.

Unfortunately Florida had disappointed me for years.
I sure hope trump burnt toast.

[2naSalit]

8. Burnt soggy toast!

I hope!