It's not just the White House: Polling shows Democrats with a big lead in Congress, too
Trump can still win the 2020 election. But doing so increasingly looks as though it will require either a massive polling error, one larger than some states saw in 2016 or some nondemocratic effort to sway the results. Even such machinations, though, would probably leave an awful lot of Republican candidates stranded.
On Wednesday afternoon, CNN released a national poll conducted with its partners at SSRS. It was unremarkable in general, giving former vice president Joe Biden a double-digit advantage over Trump. But that, of course, is remarkable for the final days of a presidential race. If it holds, its hard to see how Trump could cobble together the electoral votes he needs to win.
The 12-point overall margin is 7 points larger than the advantage the last CNN poll of 2016 gave Hillary Clinton, then Trumps opponent. (The actual margin on Election Day was about 2 points.) Trump is faring about as well with men as he did four years ago in CNNs poll but doing twice as badly with women. Older voters, those 65 and up, prefer Biden by double digits, though CNNs last poll in 2016 showed Clinton with an advantage among that group that didnt materialize, according to Pew Research Centers assessment of the 2016 electorate.
Whites without a college degree (called White, non for the sake of brevity below) preferred Trump by 30 points over Clinton but only 18 over Biden.
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