Assuming no Surprise Events, Our Final Big Hurdle is Tomorrow with the First Q3 GDP Estimates

[ProgRocknProgPol]

Last I checked, growth is predicted to be around 31% relative to the last quarter as far as I understand. Not only will Spanky and crew crow about a "big comeback" but they'll also try to use this as justification for further opening up the country. If Joe, Kamala, and their group can effectively counteract this message, then there's a good chance that they're home free (barring, as I said before, any surprise events). Here's to hoping.

[Thekaspervote]

1. JMHO... it's too late for it to make a difference..224,000 of them

[Quixote1818]

2. Wall Street is crashing because Covid is closing down Europe and spreading across the US

full throttle. Things are about to get a lot worse.

[soothsayer]

3. GDP would have to grow 50% to get even

Link to tweet

?s=21


Stephanie Ruhle
@SRuhle
Ahead of tomorrow’s GDP report & claims that “WE’RE BACK”

MATH
1.5 x .64 (100-5-31) =100

GDP fell 5% in Q1
fell 31% in Q2
GDP would have to grow 50% to get even

[W_HAMILTON]

4. What do you mean "around 7% year-to-year?"

Exactly what dates are you using to come up with that figure?

[ProgRocknProgPol]

8. I meant Annual Growth Rate.

[W_HAMILTON]

11. But what periods are you using.

Because any measure of how I know it to be calculated, it would not be equal to 7%, because you would have to include the past two quarters that will weigh down more than anything Q3 brings. So, I don't see how you get to 7% growth using year-to-year numbers.

Can you site your source please.

[ProgRocknProgPol]

13. I can't find my source anymore (I think I misread a figure on some economic website.).

I removed the 7% from my initial post. The 31% I referenced is from here: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

[W_HAMILTON]

14. No problem. Thank you!

[Roland99]

5. Not looking good for the year overall tho

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4381472-u-s-what-to-expect-for-q3-gdp-and-beyond

Thursday's 3Q GDP report will show the US expanded at a record rate over the July-September period as pent-up demand and huge government transfer payments fuelled demand. However, weaker income growth and rising Covid-19 cases suggest 4Q growth will be substantially slower and the economy will end 2020 still more than 2% smaller than 2019.

[GusBob]

6. Wait 7%? Where did you get that figure?

[ProgRocknProgPol]

9. I can't find that particular figure now. I will remove it from my initial post.

[DrToast]

7. Won't matter. Don't sweat it.

[RockRaven]

10. They've cooked the books for political reasons before, it's a given that this quarter's numbers will

be misleading as well.

What I mean by "cooked the books" is this: it is not that the Trumpists succeed in falsifying the raw data in the report. But they DO succeed in corrupting the summary and press release, because those are controlled directly by political appointees. And the first several days' articles/headlines are all based on the summary/press release. By the time competent analysts dig through the data themselves and find the lies, the news cycle has largely moved on. THOSE articles which expose the falsehoods barely get any coverage.

[Klaralven]

12. The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy - Oct 14

https://conference-board.org/research/us-forecast

[cry baby]

15. 228,760 dead and 8 million have slipped into poverty.

He’ll brag. The numbers are against him bigly.

[kurtcagle]

16. Recovery?

Most people who actually pat attention to the markets have already priced in a Q3 recovery, and are nervously eyeing the re-emergence of Covid. Markets lost about 5% since last week, and it will be hard to sell the idea that the economy is recovering as the stock market continues bleeding out. Trump will seize on any good news, but the obvious conclusion is that the market's "recovery" may have been premature.

[Rice4VP]

17. 75M have voted and there's all of the

bad numbers. Someone who has been unemployed for months doesn’t give a crap about the GDP

This is just about the time that Comey was done reading the emails and said Hillary was clear. People have stopped paying attention

[greenjar_01]

18. Literally nobody cares and nobody is changing their vote or deciding their vote on this

SMDH

[BlueLucy]

19. The feds have been buying stock

inflating the numbers.