Trump will be way ahead in PA when the polls close - expect him to declare victory

[Demovictory9]

He could be 10 to 20 points ahead when the polls close because the reported tally will include mostly in person voting.

Trouble ahead...

[mcar]

1. 10 to 20 points ahead? How do you figure that?

[regnaD kciN]

2. Because they won't even start verifying mail-in ballots until Election Day...

...so the first few sets of results will be almost entirely in-person voting.

The same is true of Michigan and Wisconsin, as well, so it's quite possible all three will show a yuge Trump lead in their initial counts, at which point he'll declare a "landslide victory" and claim the count has to stop now.

[mcar]

5. Yes, I am aware of that

I still don't get how one can predict a 20 point IMPOTUS lead in PA on Election Night.

[spinbaby]

62. Beaver County won't start until Wednesday

It’s on the news. They start counting mail-in ballots Wednesday morning. Allegheny County starts at 7:00 am Tuesday.

[pwb]

3. Come on.

That is crap Biden will lead all day.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Wrong. They begin counting mail-in ballots at 8am. A huge chunk will be counted by poll closing time

[regnaD kciN]

9. No, they start VERYIFYING ballots at 8 A.M.

And it will take most of the day to verify them, so their counting likely won't even begin until after the polls close and the first set of results is announced.

I'd also be watching whether an abnormally-high percentage of mail-in votes are invalidated.

[Statistical]

10. It depends on the county.

Many counties have said they will not even start counting ballots until after the polls are closed and all in person tabulation complete. Erie counting has said they expect to start including mail in results in totals sent from 11pm onward.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Most counties. So Biden is likely to lead.

I'm not worried. But it does seem like there's an uptick in concern posts spreading disinformation.

[BainsBane]

64. but the most populous counties always come in last

and they are heavily Democratic. In virtually ever state, rural areas, exurbs, and small towns vote Republican and cities and, this year suburbs, vote Democrat.

[Drunken Irishman]

71. They come in last when counting same-day ballots...

But if Philadelphia, and their surrounding counties, and Allegheny and Bucks start counting mail-in ballots at 8am, they'll be added to the state total pretty quickly.

[BainsBane]

72. the point is

They have a lot more ballots to count than the counties in the Trump areas. Starting doesn't mean finishing.

[Drunken Irishman]

73. They will have an 11 hour head start on same-day voting.

It's almost certain Biden will be leading in the early returns.

[Statistical]

6. PA doesn't count mail in ballots ahead of time

not even the day before the election. On the day of the election many counties won't even start counting mail in ballots until 11pm EST. Not complete counting start counting. So voting results prior to 11PM from some counties will be 100% in person counts.

I doubt Dumpy will be 20 pts ahead but given the large mail in ballot share him being ahead by some amount shortly after the polls close isn't impossible.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Most counties begin counting at 8am on election day.

[Proud liberal 80]

18. But the Republican counties aren't going to start counting them until 1100 PM or the next morning

to make it look like Trump is winning

[Drunken Irishman]

33. That would be silly to do...

...as most those counties will likely have equal or greater Republican mail-in ballots based on the fact they're Republican counties to begin with.

[DLCWIdem]

13. This can't be correct

I am in WI and I asked the clerk of courts when the in person votes were counted and she told me on election day. This was directly from the clerk of courts where we do in person voting. I was making my plans otherwise I would have voted in person on election day.

[Statistical]

17. WI is not PA.

In person voting is not mail in voting.

The procedure in every state is different.

[DLCWIdem]

32. Yes. But 1 of the post was also talking about WI and Mich

And the Thread was about Trump winning by 10- 20 pts on election night because of mail in votes not being counted until later. I was only pointing out there is many forms of early vote that will be counted on election night.

[helpisontheway]

7. I hope the media completely ignores him when he does that

Also, hope Twitter and Facebook remove it or tag it as misleading.

[moonscape]

11. Philadelphia and Bucks counties will start

counting mail-in at 7 am and presumably will have them tallied by Tues evening.

10-20 points is a pretty big spread?

[MizLibby]

14. Pa. Secretary Of State Wants All Counties To Start Counting Mail-In Ballots On Election Day

Unlike most states, Pennsylvania law does not allow officials to start processing early ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Philadelphia and other areas plan to start work on their mail-in votes at 7 a.m. sharp, officials said, but swing counties like Erie and red ones like Cumberland are intending to wait until after the polls close or even until the next morning to begin.

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/10/29/pennsylvania-counties-counting-mail-in-ballots/

[SoCalNative]

35. Next time the Dems are in charge of PA

they need to change that law so that all counties MUST begin processing and counting mail-in ballots as soon as they are received.

[Proud liberal 80]

15. Pennsylvania republicans are really trying to create chaos

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/early-voting-ballot-count-pennsylvania-2020/index.html

That includes Erie County, which swung toward Trump in 2016 and plans to begin counting in-person votes when the polls close at 8 p.m., followed by tabulating absentee ballots around 11 p.m., according to Carl Anderson III, the chair of the Erie Board of Elections. Erie is planning to stop counting ballots around 2 a.m. on November 4 and restart later that morning.

Anderson said there's a concern if the mail-in ballots are reported first, the results "out of the gate could look pretty skewed," because those votes were expected to be heavily Democratic, based on ballots requested, and the county was trying to mitigate that effect.

So he is going to skew it the other way in favor of Trump?

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. The Governor and SOS state absentee ballots will be counted starting at 7am on 11/3 nt

[Proud liberal 80]

24. Did you read the article I posted

I hope what you said is true, but it looks like the Republican ran counties will not start counting them at 700.

[DLCWIdem]

37. I read the article. Some will some wont.

I still dont think he will be so far behind.

[Proud liberal 80]

47. Oh yeah

I don't think he will be as far down as the OP thinks, but I do think he will be down 2-4% points. And even with that lead, we will hear Trump and the Republicans crying about stealing the election and that they won.

[DLCWIdem]

49. Not only that th tv stations usually say what percentage of the vite is in.

[Proud liberal 80]

52. Oh yeah I didn't even think about that

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

25. I can accept them counting when polls close...

It’s later than is ideal for no good reason, but it's just about acceptable. However, waiting until later or the next morning to start is complete bullshit.

With that said, I do not believe this election will come down to Pennsylvania or indeed any single state.

[Voltaire2]

16. you don't know that. Nobody does.

[Proud liberal 80]

20. The OP is on to something

Doubt that Trump will be up 20, but he will be up and try to declare victory and that the counting needs to stop. And he is getting help from the Republican ran counties who are blatantly counting them late so that it looks like Trump is winning.

[blue neen]

26. Where do you suppose most of the votes are in Pennsylvania?

In Republican run counties or Democratic run counties?

[Proud liberal 80]

36. I know most of the vote is from Democratic counties

But that doesn't matter.....Lets say you have a state with 100 voters (using small numbers for simplification)......60 voters live in the one urban Democratic county and 40 live in the three rural Republican ones. The Dem county gets all its vote in (mail and in person) and it goes 40-20 to Biden........The Republican ones only count their in-person votes that are 27-3 for Trump, but still have 10 outstanding that were mailed in....Trump is winning 47-43 in a close election.

The ten outstanding are 8-2 for Biden.

[blue neen]

43. Do you live in Pennsylvania?

...because you don't seem to understand it.

At any rate, I'm done responding to this thread that is just gloomy speculation.

[Proud liberal 80]

51. ok you are going on ignore

I read the CNN article that I posted to this thread and what I am saying is exactly what the Republicans in PA said that they are doing....I don't have time for your pompous remarks....I tried to have a legit discussion with you.

[coti]

57. Agreed that he could be after reading about the ballot-counting nt

[kurtcagle]

68. It's not who declares victory, but who conceded defeat that matters

Trump can declare victory all he wants, but until Biden concedes, it doesn't mean jack squat. Typically, most news organizations are not likely to declare until at least 80% of the ballots are counted, because they don't really want to be wrong and have egg on their face if the election goes the other way later. The decision today by the SC I think highlights that - they're not going to be taking any more election-related cases until after everything gets sorted out, post-election.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. At the moment the PA polls close, there will likely be more absentee results than in person

As they will begin counting absentee ballots at 7am. That will change as more in person results are quickly tabulated, and Trump will likely has a lead at midnight.

Trump can say/tweet what he wants, even get Justice Beer out of bed at midnight, but there is nothing legal he can do to stop PA from counting ballots after midnight.

[Proud liberal 80]

22. not exactly

As they will begin counting absentee ballots at 7am.

Republican counties are blatantly not doing that and are waiting.

[regnaD kciN]

46. They don't start COUNTING at 7 A.M.

They start VERIFYING ballots then -- and, as the folks at 538 point out, it's going to take a long while to get through the verification process, and only then can they start counting. (They speculate that Trump may be up by 16% when the first results are announced, and that it might take until Friday until they're actually finished counting.)

[Fiendish Thingy]

54. Yes, the verification and counting process begins at 7am, and some results will be available

When the polls close. PA has purchased several additional high speed ballot counters since the primaries, so once ballots are verified, counting should go quickly and smoothly.

The tallies that are available election night, along with the numbers of yet to be counted ballots, may give us some data to extrapolate trends. Of course, the biggest factor will be any attempts to halt or disrupt the counting- that’s where Biden’s 600 lawyers come in...

[coti]

58. The SOS wants that to happen, but not all counties are doing that nt

[DLCWIdem]

23. Just looked it up

An article on cnn.com says SOME counties will count mail in voting last. The article goes on to say that democratic strongholds will start counting at 7 am while rep districts wont count them until after polls close or the next day. Neither article said anything about in person early voting or whether that is treated like mail in voting.

[rso]

27. Pennsylvania

Except that SCOTUS just ruled this afternoon that all votes must be counted even if it’s after Nov. 3.

[blue neen]

28. 20 Points?

Right.

[regnaD kciN]

48. The analysts at 538 have said...

...that Trump may have a 16% lead on election night, even in a scenario where Biden wins the state by 5% when all votes are finally counted.

[greenjar_01]

29. I doubt it

[W_HAMILTON]

30. That won't matter much...

... when North Carolina and Florida report big leads for Biden early on due to how they report mail-in ballots.

Calm yourself.

[Cha]

60. lol

a little levity there

[qazplm135]

34. so what?

No network is going to call PA, so who cares what Trump does?

[regnaD kciN]

50. He'll declare victory, accuse the "fake news media" of being in the bag for Democrats...

...and call the Proud Boys into the streets (or worse). I'm hoping steps are taken to secure all the mail-in ballots, lest there be one or more "tragic fires" that destroy millions of them before they can be counted.

[qazplm135]

56. stop looking for ways to be scared or depressed

that's what he's counting on.

[kurtcagle]

69. Agreed

The Poor Boys (I like the name much better) are not going to take to the streets. Many of them are likely scared enough of what happened with the Whitmer kidnapping plot (and the subsequent arrests) that they may just decide that now is not the time to put themselves in the crosshairs of the FBI.

[marybourg]

38. His declarations will have no more significance

than his tweets or the rest of his blatherings. He doesn’t get to decide the winner.

[regnaD kciN]

41. No, but the Court he just packed might...

[marybourg]

42. Not based on his declaration. That has no significance.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

39. Maybe Roger Stone's goons will show up immediately...

... to bang on doors as PA finally starts counting the mailed ballots?

Kidding, but Trump will probably try something ridiculous out of sheer desperation.

[regnaD kciN]

40. 538 agrees with you...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvanias-vote-count-could-change-after-election-night/

They say it's quite conceivable that the election night results will show Trump up by 16% in Pennsylvania, even if the final count gives the state to Biden by 5% -- and that the same might well be true for Michigan and Wisconsin as well.

[DLCWIdem]

44. When the tv stations air the vote

Dont they also include what percentage of the vote is in? For example, They say Trump is leading with 1 % of the vote in?

[JCMach1]

45. Gov..Wolfe said in an interview that it's likely they will be finished

Early hours on Wednesday
.MSNBC a.couple of days back

[MoonlitKnight]

53. Meh

We will get a too close to call or a too early to call at poll closing.

Too early to call = just wait. Doesn’t mean anything until later.

Too close to call = Still not terrible but time to focus elsewhere.

[Mike 03]

55. % of votes counted.

Don't they do that in PA on the news stations?

"Trump leads by 4 points with 20% of votes counted... Still a lot of ballots to be counted and that could change..."



I mean, Trump can say anything he wants, and often does. But the votes have to be counted. The election isn't decided until the votes are tabulated.

[yellowcanine]

59. I don't give a flying fuck what Trump declares. Not his call.

[Kingofalldems]

61. Another interesting thread.

[BainsBane]

65. Are you doing GOTV?

If not, sign up here. https://www.mobilize.us/

The single most dangerous attitude that can undermine this election is assuming that we have it in the bag. Biden says we run like we're ten points behind. That is the ONLY productive approach to the election.

[MizLibby]

63. Steve Kornacki at his big board will have his sleeves rolled up and explain it all to us. j/k

Please don't worry about bad stuff that likely will never happen. Trump spews nothing but lies and if he says he won, fine. Everyone knows it's a lie.

And please don't bring me down from my high...I haven't felt this hopeful in years.

And please don't be snippy to each other.
Agree to disagree and go walk the dog or pull weeds or have a snack, do something fun.

[BainsBane]

66. Doing GOTV can help alleviate some of those fears

Because at least you know you are doing what you can. https://www.mobilize.us/
In many--but not all--states, mail in ballots will lag the election day returns. The Biden campaign knows this, but they have still promoted mail-in voting. Now, of course, it's too late to mail in a ballot. Early voting or election day voting are the only sensible options left.

[Laelth]

67. No way. n/t

-Laelth

[smirkymonkey]

70. Fuck this.

[Demsrule86]

74. Candidates don't declare victory so no I don't expect it. He will look like a horses ass if he does.

Always the doom and gloom...why?

[jcgoldie]

78. "he will look like a horse's ass if he does."

...But uhm, how will he know the difference between that and like every other day Trump?

[Kaleva]

75. It doesn't matter if he does or not. People will be looking to MSM to call the state.

[Wednesdays]

76. Unrec and trashed. nt

[jcgoldie]

77. bologna

I understand more dems will vote by mail due to covid but this has never been even remotely an issue in previous elections. Its taking the Trump bait to sew fear and doubt is what it is.