Complacency is setting in, NV has lost almost half of our early lead in EV, down to 41,000

[ffr]

Jon Ralston - Updated, 2PM PST, 10/29/20

SOS did a rare midday update, adding in some rurals.

Still no Clark in-person from Wednesday, and a few thousand mail ballots not in the county, but accounting for that and the Dems statewide lead is down to about 41K now. - Nevada Independent

The Russian dronebots are getting their voters to the polls and democrats seem to have victory parties on their minds instead of casting their ballots!

That's the smallest lead we've ever enjoyed in the past 8 years.

GA-dammit!

[BannonsLiver]

1. Oh FFS

[cwydro]

10. Ditto.

[secondwind]

2. Could this be due to Covid?? It's pretty bad there now.

[LisaL]

5. They were all mailed absentee ballots.

If they are afraid of covid, why not fill out the ballot and mail it in? Or drop it off?

[ffr]

8. We have mail-in voting. Covid shouldn't prevent someone from bubbling and signing.

Ralston is making up excuses for why this may be and he doesn't know either, since Covid makes it difficult to gauge trends, but he's been saying from the beginning, dems need 80K EV lead. So unless Rs have changed their voting habits, which it's safe to assume many have, and are voting mail-in and EV instead of on election day, that's about our only saving grace. We're the rabbit that's asleep on the losing side of the finish line right now.

I'm stunned!

[ffr]

16. What kind of a response is that? Please inform me as to what you know.

I'll happily eat crow. Our EV advantage numbers have been dropping steadily. Typically when the numbers come in from the SoS office I'm able to crunch them before Jon Ralston has a chance to work the over. We've never been this low this close to the election, 'oh overconfident one.'

[ffr]

28. So you've got nothing. Great, that was helpful.

[ffr]

32. You've got nothing, zero. Help out or Byedon!

[ffr]

48. So again nothing, no evidence to base your claims on. Let's see if I can pin you down on votes then

What is your estimate on Biden's win in votes, since you seem to only see winning NV as a win or a loss proposition, while I see winning NV by as many as possible and NOT taking any democratic vote for granted.

Got a number? Or is that just a given we should all assume?

[Turin_C3PO]

24. It's great turnout of Democrats

in the vast majority of places. Trump is going to lose, big time. Every single piece of data testifies to this. But if you want to give yourself a panic attack over this, then go right ahead.

[ffr]

29. Every single blah blah blah. The polls said we'd carry NV by a mile in 2016. We won by 2.4%

The polls were wrong in 2016 and that's when we had a 70,000+ EV lead going into election day. WE NEED HELP!

See post #22 You are wrong in your assumption.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214388837#post22

[Turin_C3PO]

33. It's not 2016, it's 2020. We will take Nevada easily.

Every single expert agrees with thisIt’s not even a swing state anymore. Trump won’t win any of the sunbelt, including Arizona. No one is complacent. Turnout for early voting is significantly more than in 2016. Ans it‘s not mainly Republicans that are standing in line.

[Proud liberal 80]

3. the way i read this

is that they haven't counted the Clark County Wednesday vote yet. So why the doom and gloom?

[ffr]

11. Did you not read the part about where we've gone from 71K to 41K?

There's no way Clark outstripped R votes in the county by 30K votes yesterday.

[dsc]

31. Why isn't there

We seem to be, by his numbers, winning by about 20% of the total vote. I don't see why 150k votes in one day is all that out of line given the totals.

[Bleacher Creature]

19. That's how I read it as well. NT

[Thekaspervote]

4. Oh geez! It looked good yesterday

[regnaD kciN]

6. We need to keep in mind...

...that EV (by party affiliation) doesn't really give a clue to the final vote. We don't really know how many for each side will vote before Election Day, and how many will turn up that day.

[maxsolomon]

7. I would vote in Nevada if I could.

NV is giving voting totals prior to 11/3?

[ffr]

9. We do so every year. Not voting totals, registered party affiliation totals.

They're put out by the SoS office.

[dem4decades]

12. I guess the Nevada Democrats better beat the bushes even harder.

They know how to do it.

[BainsBane]

14. Hopefully they are waiting for election day

[bigtree]

18. "Biden holding steady at 4 points ahead"

Here’s what the models look like now – Biden holding steady at 4 points ahead if indies are split and Trump still loses even if he wins indies by 10...

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

...but by all means, spread gloom and anxiety to vulnerable people here who are doing everything they can to win.

[ffr]

21. Hey thanks for the encouraging words there. I'm sounding the alarm to GOTV

Call it what you want, that's you using your own words, but we need help. The numbers aren't looking good. I know, I've worked the number for years. We're borderline at 41K lead. Jon's right, we need 80K going into Tuesday and we only have Friday left for EV.

DAMMIT!

[LanternWaste]

34. Maybe you should have simply said 'vote' upfront...

As it stands, yours comes across as little more than Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, and petty vindictiveness against all who see it as such.

But sure... call it what you want. That's what you're gonna do

[BainsBane]

20. Dems lead by a greater margin in mail in ballots

look at this chart. https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

[blitzen]

22. Here's what Ralston is REALLY saying:

Quotes from his twitter updates:

I updated the early voting blog.
More rurals, more GOP crushing.
But Trump needs them to have a significantly bigger share of the vote to have much chance in Nevada.


The early voting blog is updated with new numbers and a new way of looking at the Dem lead in Nevada.
The models still show Biden ahead, and Trump still needs a double-digit win among indies to have a chance here.
And: Two-thirds of the vote may be in.

[ffr]

25. Ralston will also tell you that he almost bit it in 2016. We had somel

Here's my post from Fri Nov 4, 2016, 11:33 PM, historically our final day, which will be tomorrow 10/31/2020

Clark County, Nevada. Democratic Firewall is ~72,619 votes as of this moment going into GE
https://www.democraticunderground.com/12512586545

This is what I'm saying. We're 30,000 votes lower than we were in 2016. That's not a good way to go into election day!!!

[blitzen]

60. No, you don't understand Ralston's "firewall."

When Ralston says "firewall" he means the Dem margin in Clark County. He estimates what margin there would make it nearly impossible for the GOP to win a statewide race. The 30,000 rural votes that he mentioned this afternoon are not in Clark County and so make absolutely no difference to the firewall. So far in the past week or so he has consistently said that Dems are doing a bit better than in 2016 in terms of reaching the firewall level.

[BayAreaAtLast]

23. We early voted in Nevada

After a race to get our driver's licenses in time. We just moved into our house September 30th. We were told our ballots were mailed on the 9th, but have never received them.

[ffr]

26. You are awesome! Thank you!

[NewsCenter28]

37. I don't have the foggiest idea what you're doing

Your post is, to put it politely, nonsensical and hysterical. I am reading Jon Ralston's blog every day and all 5 of his models have the Dems winning NV, by 15,000 votes+.

Your post is flat out wrong and you should delete it. Read Ralston's blog, scroll down to the daily 5 scenario chart and Biden wins by at least 2 points in ALL scenarios.

I follow him incredibly intently and he is not saying under any interpretation of his words that Nevada is going GOP.

Trump is not winning Nevada.

[ffr]

45. Take it up with CNN then. Downplaying a surge in R voting with 24 hours left in EV

is 180* opposite of the message we need to be broadcasting to any democrat in NV who haven't voted yet. To put it politely, why would any democrat take any democratic vote for granted as you are suggesting? We're 30,000 votes down on 2016 and we squeaked by then.

I don't like squeaking by all smug and confident in 5 hypothetical scenarios, when we barely squeaked by in 2016 when we had a 73,000 vote EV lead under better known scenarios. Are you not getting that?! 41K with 24 hours to go is not good enough!

[Demsrule86]

49. CNN wants a horse race and will say much stupid shit...we most show discernment.

[sunonmars]

27. GOP is cannibalising its vote in the rurals though and it may not all be going to Trump anyway

[Awsi Dooger]

36. Nevada is more difficult to figure out this time

Every registered voter was mailed ballots, but many voters will vote in person instead. Therefore the percentage of returned and outstanding ballots is not clear cut toward what to expect.

Also the mail ballot reporting in Clark has been sporadic and coming in bunches. Some days Ralston reports next to nothing from mail. In prior cycles it was easy to grasp the percentage of voters remaining and how many to expect out of Clark in a given day, along with margin.

There was speculation that the culinary union ground game would have more trouble this year. But two nights ago everything looked fine. I don't even know what voting numbers to expect out of Clark this year because so many have moved away due to coronavirus impact on the economy.

I think we'll be okay. But Nevada should never be taken for granted. I've mentioned that many times. It is anything but a dependably blue state. The ideology breakdown is identical to Florida and the educational numbers are not good. Lots of rural white working class voters. It was guaranteed that the GOP devoted the past 4 years to contacting every last one of those rural voters who typically don't turn out.

Let's hope for a surge out of Clark. That's the singular variable

[Dem2]

38. You just shot my anxiety THROUGH THE ROOF

You better be right with your analysis.

[BannonsLiver]

39. Or you could listen to the other people who say he's wrong

Other posters in the thread, Nate Silver, 538, Nate Cohn, Harry a Enten, Larry Sabato etc.

Actual professionals rather than panicked keyboard experts.

[Dem2]

41. I did, however

I'm still somewhat aghast that a poster admits it's an unusual update and that it was rural (i.e. Republican heavy) votes, but felt the need to toss a fit and ruin the days of dozens of people. Who does that?

[BGBD]

40. We didnt go from 73 to 41k...

73k is our Clark County firewall. The vote from the rural counties cuts that down to a 43k or whatever lead statewide. Since we don't have votes from Clark in the past day we don't know what the firewall or the lead are....

We are doing just fine in NV.

[Dem2]

42. Thanks

Need voices of reason in here.

[pnwmom]

43. But how does this mean anything without any Wed numbers from heavily Democratic Clark county?

[Celerity]

44. the only likely way NV matters is IF Trump wins BOTH FL AND PA

At that point I will assume, based off trends, trump takes IA, MO, GA, TX, , AK, AR, OH, IN, KS, SC, and the mega Red states

Biden will take MN, MI, WI, CO, VA, NH, NM, and the mega Blue states.

this leaves the following states (and districts) that will decide the election at that point.


NV
AZ
NC
NE-2
ME-2

Biden needs 18 or more EV's to get to 270 or more.

A 269-269 tie will 90+% likely result in a Trump win, as the Rethugs control 26 House delegations and are unlikely to lose any (FL is the only real shot, where we have an outside shot at flipping FL-15, BUT we have to defend F-13, which is likely, and defend FL-26, which is a complete tossup, and if Trump wins FL we likely lose it, so even flipping FL-15 would then be meaningless overall) and can possibly pick up 2 additional delegations (MI (the Amash seat going back to Red ties it, and they have 2 other good shots to take outright control) and PA, which is now dead tied, and they have 3 or so shots at a Blue to Red flip)




We can win NC and both ME-2 and E-2, but will lose in the 269-269 nightmare IF Trump wins NV and AZ, and obviously losing either district (or both), plus NV and AZ sinks us as well






IF we keep NV Blue, but lose NC

then it is down to AZ and the 2 districts

If Trump wins AZ as well, we lose no matter what at that point







If we flip AZ, but lose NC and NV, we lose no matter what (given all the rest of the postulations in all of these scenarios) THIS is your true NV nightmare, as I can see us losing NC but winning AZ, IF it is a close race, more so than winning NC but losing AZ, but regardless of either way, losing NV sinks us at that point








Good news to end on

If we keep NV and flip NC, then Trump can win all the other 3 (AZ, NE-2, and ME-2) and he loses no matter what







If we win PA OR FL, then Trump can win ALL the rest (NC, NV, AZ, ME-2, NE-2) that were put into play in these scenarios and we win no matter what

this would be the closest he can possibly get





Disclaimer,

NONE of these are NOT my final predictions, I am only showing you scenarios where NV comes into play. In 95% of most cases (or more) it is meaningless i terms of the final outcome.

[ffr]

47. Granted the maps look favorable. However, in 2000, Gore lost NV by 22,000 votes.

Because he took it for granted. Nevada would have put him over the top. Gore had 266, NV was 4. Bush carried Nevada and the election went to him 5 to 4.

[Celerity]

52. Bottom line for me (and I highly doubt both happen) IF Trump clearly wins BOTH PA and FL, then, at

that point I am going to start to actually worry, unless we have Blue upsets before those 2 are sorted and we win GA or have a big margin win in NC, etc.

It is either going to be fairly close, OR a massive Biden win. I cannot get a grasp on my final predictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the insane amount of voter suppression going on. I missed only 2 states in 2016 on my final call for a uni pool (which I won btw). FL (I had it going Blue) and MN (I had it going Red). Obviously you can do the math and see who I said would win then, and unfortunately I was right.

here

I will do a NOT final prediction

[Demsrule86]

50. We will win Nevada and Pennsylvania...more also. I think we may have a landslide.

[Celerity]

55. The states/districts I am most unsure of are simple, AZ, NC, FL, PA, ME-2

The rest I have a good grasp on (we will win WI, MN, MI, NV, NE-2, NH, CO, NM, VA)

(the only changes from my 'good grasp on' would be positive changes to us, if a true rout happens, places like GA, IA, OH, TX, SC, AR, AK, some of those my surprise us and go Blue, if it is a landslide)


here is my not final, simply atm, prediction

[NorthOf270]

53. While I feel the original post is alarmist....

....That's not really the answer.....that the state is somehow not important.

I consider Nevada a lock, so losing it would be bad on a psychological level.

[Celerity]

57. well, if the other variables go our way (ie PA and FL for the 2 biggest) NV doesn't matter at all

it is simples maths

here is proof how important PA and FL are

an almost worst possible scenario other than we win PA and FL (plus MN)

Trump can run the board on ALL the remotely close states (other than MN), win both NE-2 and ME-2

and still lose

[NorthOf270]

58. Losing Nevada (and NH!!??) but somehow winning Florida seems unlikely

My point stands. We need to run up the score and as far as I'm concerned Nevada is as much a blue state as NM, MD or RI.

This board you posted will force the election to court which Trump wants.

I know you're trying to somehow reassure people, but this would actually be a disturbing result.

We will win Nevada and a lot more than this.

[Celerity]

59. I was NOT saying all that would happen, please read, I showed that EVEN if we lost basically

every single remotely close state, but won PA and FL and MN (or swap ONE out of either AZ, or NC, or WI or the double of NV/NH with MN........ as all are 10 EV's or more) , it doesn't matter.

we win

PA and FL are the epicentres of epicentres

we win those 2 (given trends) it is basically over for Trump

ad whether NV stays Blue (I think it will) or not doesn't matter in almost every scenario (other than the ones I laid out in great detail)

here is my not final prediction atm

to assuage any fears

[Codeine]

46. You're flipping out over an incomplete data set.

Without Clark County the numbers can’t be analyzed meaningfully. This whole thing is silly, premature, and OTT.

[regnaD kciN]

54. "When in danger/when in doubt/run in circles/scream and shout."

[UnderThisLaw]

56. Really concerned tonight, huh?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142616351

[book_worm]

61. Things sure look different today

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
Early voting blog updated with numbers that show 81K Clark Dem firewall, 45K statewide lead. New models show Biden lead holding steady, Trump needs miracle scenario unless GOP can change mix of electorate.
Come for the numbers, stay for the "Vertigo" ref.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[Quixote1818]

62. The OP didn't age well. LOL nt

[Yavin4]

63. And this...

So how dire is it looking for Trump with one day of data coming and much more mail before Election Day?

Pretty dire.

And it may be worse than it looks.

Several folks, including poker pro Andy Bloch and data guru John Samuelsen, have pointed out that the “others” are voting more by mail (136,700) than by in-person (110,400) and that may indicate they are more Democratic-leaning than GOP-leaning. If you allocate proportionally, that’s a decent lead for Biden with indies, perhaps as much as 10 points.

Straight from the link provided in the OP.