538 "The Battleground States Where We've Seen Some Movement In The Polls"
And states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which have largely remained the same.
By Geoffrey Skelley
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-battleground-states-where-weve-seen-some-movement-in-the-polls/
With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking.
At the same time, we also have fewer polls from live-caller surveys, which have historically been more accurate and have shown slightly better numbers for Biden, than polls that use other methodologies, such as polls conducted primarily online or through automated telephone calls. Nevertheless, while the overall picture has shifted only a little in recent days, a few battleground states have seen at least some movement in their polls, which has slightly altered the odds Biden or Trump wins in each of those places.
For instance, we’ve gotten three new high-quality polls today from Florida that were in the field through at least Tuesday, and although these polls have helped Biden a tad, they actually tell a pretty mixed tale compared to each pollster’s last look at the Florida situation. For instance, NBC News/Marist College gave Biden a 4-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent, which was a narrow improvement for Biden from the tied race Marist found in early September. However, Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point edge it gave Biden in early October.
And yesterday, Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden’s numbers, as their poll found him up by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago. Bottom line: Florida is close, like it always seems to be.
snip - lots more at the link - interesting read. generally good news for Joe.
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